Modelling also suggested that Britain has little to fear from a new winter wave. New figures from University College London suggested that deaths will remain at an average of 150 a day for the next week before steadily declining towards 25 daily deaths by the New Year.
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine also correctly forecast that cases would start to fall in November, with Christmas seeing low rates of infection.
The Prime Minister on Monday reaffirmed his belief that there is “nothing in the current data” to trigger “Plan B”.
Prof Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, confirmed that cases, deaths and admissions are no longer rising and have been “broadly flat” for many weeks.
“The number of people in hospital is mercifully a lot lower than in the peak,” he said at Monday’s press conference. “Covid numbers are not going up as you are seeing in continental Europe and if they were you would have to look again.”
However, he warned that the NHS is under “very significant pressure” from winter effects and the catch up from Covid.
Officials are clearly concerned that the health service could face a worse than normal flu season while struggling to clear the backlog of treatment put off during the height of the pandmeic.
If that is the case, preventing even small numbers of Covid patients will be crucial to avoid overwhelming the NHS this Christmas.
So, ‘tis the season to be boosted. It might just keep you out of hospital and off Boris’s naughty list.