While Downing Street believes it is still too early to say whether further measures will be required, several Cabinet ministers have told The Telegraph they do not believe the current levels of infections and hospital admissions warrant them.

Another minister suggested further restrictions would be a “futile gesture”, as any pressure on the NHS for the next fortnight would be “baked in” from record infection levels.

With as many as one in 25 people infected with Covid in the run-up to Christmas, the Government has asked business groups and public sector leaders to prepare for a worst-case scenario in which one in four staff are off work.

The situation has dominated a series of meetings of the Covid O (Operations) Cabinet sub-committee this week, with ministers presented with data on key workforces and services such as public transport.

It is understood that while most workforce absence rates remain below 10 per cent, airlines have now crossed that threshold, while Royal Mail and Post Office absences stood at between 10 and 11 per cent before Christmas.

Absences for train staff remain in the single digits, although train cancellations were running at one in 20 nationally on Thursday. While officials are confident the rail network will continue to function satisfactorily, it is understood that reduced timetables are among the measures that could be deployed if staff infections surge this month.

Should absences hit 25 per cent, it is thought some transport services could be reduced to 60 per cent of their normal levels.

The latest figures for England show 24,632 NHS hospital staff off work or isolating because of Covid – twice the 12,240 two weeks before. In total, around 68,000 are off sick in total – around eight per cent of such staff.

Police and prison staff absences were said to be “manageable”, at between five  and 10 per cent in mid-December, although sources warned that anything over 20 per cent would pose significant safety risks.

Despite this, several ministers insisted the contingency plans were “totally in scope” and no sectors were “remotely near” the threshold at which emergency measures would need to be taken.

One senior government source also said they had been shown figures suggesting that, while hospital admissions were doubling every 16 days, there were signs this could peak by mid-January. However, others warned that there was still significant “uncertainty” around the data.