In 2017, only four-in-five deaths were registered, while only one-in-five registered deaths also had a cause identified, according to Indian government data.

India was plunged into chaos last spring as the delta variant overwhelmed the country and thousands of Indians died outside at capacity hospitals and in their homes.

Many were unable to get tested for Covid-19 before they died while others were hastily buried in makeshift burial sites.
This discrepancy in the death toll has already been noted in state-wise mortality data across India. For example, in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh there were almost 24 times the expected deaths during April 2020 and May 2021.

Madhya Pradesh was also one of five states where less than ten per cent of deaths during this period were medically certified.

Meanwhile, India’s ongoing third wave, which is being driven by the more contagious omicron variant, continues to escalate.

On Thursday, the country logged 117,100 new Covid-19 cases – more than triple the daily tally on January 1 – and the most since early June.

Many hospitals in India’s major cities have reported a noticeable uptick in Covid-19 hospitalisations. In Mumbai, the number of people admitted increased from 916 on December 15 to 4,491 on January 4.

The Indian authorities have called for calm and reiterated that there remains plenty of beds available across the country but there is concern that if cases continue to rise at the current rate that facilities could again become overwhelmed.

Modelling by the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute suggests the third wave could peak with anywhere between 300,000 and one million daily cases, likely towards the end of January.

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