City and a host of rivals in the league now appear increasingly likely to back a salary-cap system broadly along the lines that were introduced in League One and League Two.
“We’ve got this big bow wave about to hit us next year on Profit and Sustainability,” said Gould. “We can see it coming and it’s only been brought about because the transfer market has crashed. Otherwise the business plan, which albeit required quite a lot of investment from the owner, was relatively sound. But now this big bow wave is coming, we know that we’re probably going to breach it next year unless we sell a lot of our best players. And we don’t want to sell a lot of our best players.”
Bristol City are in ongoing talks with the EFL about their plight, and Gould accepts that the club could end up in a position next season where “maybe we’ll just take the points”.
Long-term reforms to the current system appear inevitable. The league and its Championship members are considering following the path taken by Uefa in exploring new rules to focus on the high levels of spending on wages and transfers rather than profit lines.
However, those reforms could come too late for City and rivals as unprecedented numbers of clubs prepare for the prospect of falling foul of the rules over the next year. In November, Reading were deducted six points, with a further six-point deduction suspended until the end of the 2022-23 season, over a loss of £57.8m.
There is no risk of City going into administration like Derby, who were deducted 21 points in total this season. However, calculations first uncovered by Liverpool University football finance expert Kieran Maguire revealed the eye-watering costs for a club which has never benefited from Premier League parachute payments.
City have lost £412,000 a week, every week, for the last 10 years from day-to-day trading, Maguire found. Overall, in the latest annual finances, City’s revenue was down 39 per cent to £16.7m but wages had increased six per cent to £35.3m. Day-to-day losses increased by a quarter to £44m, with owner investment up to £214m.
Assessing the dire situation facing clubs, Gould warned that owners would get very frustrated if they managed to weather this storm and then suddenly find themselves foul of rules “that weren’t designed for Covid issues”.
