Are we heading for $300 for a barrel of oil?

Not that you’ll feel the effects in your pocket for a long time to come, at least here in Britain. The UK price cap is a lag restraint, which allows suppliers to continue charging high retail prices even after the wholesale cost has collapsed back down again.

Coming up fast in the wings now, however, are levitating oil prices.

Even at current, slightly more subdued wholesale gas prices, there is a big mismatch between the price of natural gas and that of oil, the latter of which today trades at around $85 a barrel as measured by the Brent benchmark.

This in turn presents plenty of opportunities for arbitrage. Electricity generating plants in the US and Japan that can have swapped their feedstock from natural gas to oil to take advantage.

There is unfortunately little such flexibility in the UK and Europe, where the fallback energy source amid eye-wateringly high natural gas prices has tended to be coal. 

The effect of this arbitrage is to progressively narrow the difference between the two prices. Since the start of the year, natural gas prices have been falling, but oil prices have been rising.

The gap nonetheless remains a wide one. Unlike oil, natural gas is not yet a global commodity; it remains substantially trapped in local markets. Where exported, the quantities are constrained by limited LNG capacity.

The problem is particularly acute in Europe, where the fracking revolution that has provided the US with plentiful domestic supply is either banned or discouraged. Climate change goals have meanwhile starved more traditional sources of fossil fuel supply, such as the North Sea, of the capital needed for further development.

The lack of foresight is breathtaking. Yesterday’s fuel they may be, but for now, fossil fuels remain the very lifeblood of a thriving economy.

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