Question three:
How exposed is my portfolio to things that might reasonably be considered inevitable over the next few years? Whether or not we hit the net-zero targets laid out in Glasgow, the next two or three decades are going to be heavily influenced by the attempt to do so.
That means that many gazillions of dollars, euros and yuan are going to be spent on building a lower carbon future: more electric vehicles, more renewable energy, more efficient buildings. And the most obvious beneficiary of all that infrastructure spending will ironically be some of the dirtiest of industries. Demand for copper, iron ore, rare metals, you name it, will exceed supply for the foreseeable future.
Question four:
Do they still make it any more? Mark Twain recommended buying land for this reason. Finite supply and rising demand equal higher prices. Economics 101. There just isn’t enough claret in the world to quench the thirst of the Chinese and Indian middle classes that are likely to get a taste for it. There won’t ever be any more 1960s Ferraris.
Question five:
Do the people buying this good or service themselves enjoy an inflation-proof income? Governments do, so the things that they spend their money on – like hospitals, schools, roads and tanks – are likely to remain in demand.
This is particularly true when voters are generally unimpressed by the people that govern them and require more and more encouragement to keep their leaders in power. Some of the funds and investment trusts that specialise in this area, such as the Foresight UK Infrastructure Income fund, also offer investors a decent yield – 5pc in this case.
Question six:
How do my investments like the prospect of rising interest rates? The first few weeks of this year have shown that investors have a growing preference for shares that are valued on the basis of today’s actual earnings rather than the hope for profits at some point in the future.
Unprofitable tech stocks, which have flourished in the low rate world, have borne the brunt of this rotation and the Nasdaq index is 5pc lower than it started the year. Banks, by contrast, like rising interest rates because they allow them to widen the gap between the lower rate of interest they pay on deposits and the higher rate they charge on loans.
Question seven:
What has worked before? Gold has been a disappointment as inflation has reappeared on investors’ radars, but it tends to do well when interest rates remain below the rate of inflation, as seems entirely likely for as far as the eye can see.
Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. The views are his own. He tweets at @tomstevenson63