As Fortress Russia crumbles, the global economy faces a new world order

Dario Perkins, managing director of global macro at TS Lombard, says: “We always thought this splintering of the global economy into different trade blocs – the US, Asia and Europe in the middle – was going to happen but we’ve had that accelerated.

“Some of these trends will be accelerated, particularly [given] you are drawing Russia, China, India and other countries closer together. They’re starting to use the renminbi in bilateral trade instead of the dollar.”

Government-imposed financial sanctions taken against Russia by the West have been sweeping and devastating, while individual companies have delivered a blow by pulling their operations out of the country. There are worries this could force Russia and others to seek alternatives to a global financial system dominated by the West and its financial heavyweights.

In addition to personal sanctions against Putin and his inner circle of oligarchs and ministers, the West targeted its lenders and central bank. 

Once considered a “nuclear” option, a number of Russian banks were ejected from the Swift global payments messaging system, making it far harder for them to do business and make cross-border payments. Visa and Mastercard also suspended their operations in the country, blocking access to new cards issued by the payment giants.

Meanwhile, following the invasion, the West froze half of the Russian central bank’s foreign currency and gold reserves, hindering Moscow’s ability to prop up the rouble and its banking system. 

Under Putin’s Fortress Russia plan to insulate it from sanctions, Moscow had built up a $640bn war chest of foreign reserves. The freezing of these reserves was considered a game-changing move, in an unexpected and powerful escalation of the financial siege on Russia. It prompted a plunge in the rouble and the introduction of capital controls in the country.

Some fear this weaponisation of finance and the US dollar has long-term consequences, perhaps luring countries to a new rival sphere headed by China. 

Russian banks are turning to alternatives to the Belgium-based Swift in order to smooth cross-border payments. Its central bank has its own system it has already offered India for rouble payments, while China also has an alternative that could rival Swift.

Moscow’s lenders have turned to China’s payment giant UnionPay to help them issue debit and credit cards after Visa and Mastercard joined the mass exodus of Western brands from Russia. The two American payment heavyweights accounted for 70pc of the Russian debit card market but the Kremlin created its own system, Mir, following the Crimea annexation. 

Following the departure of Visa and Mastercard, Russian banks and Mir hoped to team up with UnionPay, which has been fast gaining ground outside of China in recent years, to issue cards. However, reports suggested last week that UnionPay is getting cold feet, fearing that it will be dragged into Western sanctions.

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