Sorry England, but pace really does matter in Australia

Given the importance of runs scored, performance by spinners and a host of other factors, the difficulty comes in proving a direct cause and effect between speed and victories.

Perhaps it is best to look at the occasions when Australia have been beaten. Their four Test defeats at the upcoming Ashes venues in the past 10 years all came in Indian series victories in 2018/19 and 2020/21.

The core of India’s attack on both occasions featured the quartet of Bumrah, Yadav, Shami, and Sharma — who averaged 86.5mph — as well as the slower Mohammed Siraj, who took 13 wickets with an average speed of 83.2mph.

Although difficult to account for a bonkers final Test at the Gabba when a largely second-string Indian side triumphed earlier this year, those victories tend to suggest that pace was as important to India as it has been for Australia.

Australia’s only other series defeats over the past decade came against South Africa in 2012/13 and 2016/17, when Morne Morkel, Dale Steyn and Kagiso Rabada – three men capable of regularly exceeding 90mph – topped the wicket-taking charts. While many of those matches took place away from the four upcoming Ashes venues, the benefit of express speed was again evident.

Indeed, touring party seamers generally tend to swing the ball more than the Australians at three of the four Ashes venues (with Sydney the exception), but movement has led to precious few wins.

How can England’s seamers triumph? 

It is to that second South Africa series victory in 2016/17 that Broad pointed when asked how England’s pace bowlers can triumph Down Under this winter.

“Kyle Abbott and [Vernon] Philander have got brilliant records [in Australia],” he said. “It’s bringing the stumps into play and, as a whole bowling unit, repeating it, repeating it and repeating it for long periods of time.”

While Abbott is no slouch, it was the metronomic nature of his and Philander’s bowling that will give Broad, Anderson and co. most encouragement as they look to support Wood’s firepower in much the same way that South Africa did behind attack leader Rabada.

Alas, it has not worked on the past two trips to Australia, when England were mauled 5-0 and 4-0 despite respectable hauls of 21 wickets for Broad in 2013/14 and 17 for Anderson in 2017/18.

Instead, they will look to replicate their last away Ashes success from 2010/11 when Anderson, Chris Tremlett and Tim Bresnan employed a miserly approach to restrict runscoring. In that series, England even dropped their leading wicket-taker and fastest bowler Steven Finn after three Tests because of the number of runs he was leaking.

That summer was unusually wet, playing into the seaming expertise of the travelling pace attack. With rain wreaking havoc with Ashes preparations over the past week, pitches during this series are expected to be greener and livelier again, which should play to England’s strengths. They will hope the traditional English approach can do the trick, even if statistics are against them.

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