The ministerial backlash against new pre-Christmas Covid controls marks a welcome reassertion of Cabinet government and is a further sign of Boris Johnson’s waning authority. Urged on by scientific advisers worried about a January surge, the Prime Minister was minded to order new restrictions. But he was beaten back by demands from his colleagues that more data be made available about the trajectory of the omicron variant and the ability of the NHS to withstand the pressure it is coming under. 

A planned news conference at which the new measures were expected to be announced was cancelled, with Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, among those unwilling to countenance further damage to the economy without cast-iron evidence and a coherent exit plan. The resignation of Lord Frost, Mr Johnson’s closest Cabinet ally, over the prospect of more restrictions proved to be the writing on the wall following a revolt by 100 backbenchers against some of the so-called Plan B measures. With the Commons in recess, Mr Johnson could not this time put his plans to a vote and rely on Labour to get them through. 

Arguably, the Prime Minister has ended up in the worst of all worlds. Although he was not able to act yesterday, given that the threat of further restrictions is still hanging over the public, many will be wondering whether their Christmas plans should go ahead after all.  

The alarming, even alarmist, forecast from Sage advisers – that up to 6,000 people could die a day next month – is the worst-case scenario, yet one that is helping to control interactions of people through fear rather than diktat. The reliance on models that appear designed to support a particular policy approach is worrying; and ministers have evidently decided no longer to take these at face value. They are asking for more of the information that we all need to make an assessment of risk: how many people in hospital are unvaccinated, what are their ages and other morbidities, and why are we panicking when evidence from South Africa suggests this variant is more benign than delta? 

Moreover, there is no need to reach for statutory controls when guidance is bringing about a similar outcome by changing behaviour. But while this approach is preferable to using emergency powers, it also needs to be put into proper perspective otherwise the Government is achieving a lockdown by stealth. 

That may well be the intention. But the consequence is that restaurants, bars, theatres and other entertainment venues that rely heavily on pre-Christmas trade to survive in the new year have again been pulverised by cancelled bookings. Retailers also suffered on what should have been their busiest weekend of the year, with the number of people on the high street sharply down.

This is happening not because omicron seems to be especially virulent but because the NHS faces meltdown as beds fill up and as more and more staff take time off after they test positive. A critical manpower shortage is looming that will feed into other key sectors and affect supply chains across the board. The Government needs to amend the 10-day isolation requirement for fully vaccinated people, otherwise the country will come to a grinding halt in a few weeks’ time. This needs to be reduced to seven days at the most or to end immediately after a negative lateral flow test.

What is extraordinary is that we are enduring precisely the same debate as last Christmas, though then it was the Kent variant prompting lockdown demands. Within a few weeks the number of cases soared, peaking at below the case numbers we are seeing today, though fatalities were much higher. But there is one fundamental difference between then and now: most people have been double or even triple jabbed, and the vaccines – particularly with a booster – are standing up to omicron.

If scientists and NHS chiefs seek to replicate virtually the same measures that were deemed necessary before a vaccine was available, massive questions are raised over how this spiral of despair can ever be brought to an end. Covid is heading towards becoming an endemic disease that experiences a surge every winter, as happens with all respiratory illnesses, almost certainly involving more variants. Is this to go on for ever?