As we inch our way towards Christmas, through a blizzard of Government Covid announcements, every family up and down the land is having the same conversation. What are the responsible choices to make to ensure that those we love most in this world are protected and safe from a fast spreading virus?

We all know these are difficult decisions but one of the reasons I’ve found it hard to support the Government’s response to the pandemic is because it has always felt as though the data that has been presented has been designed to make the argument they want to make rather than really balance both the benefits and harms of the various lockdowns and restrictions they have brought in.

Many of these measures cause social and health damage and have a huge, negative impact on people’s livelihoods.

From people not presenting for medical treatment and deteriorating mental health to the impact on young people of schools closing, fewer career prospects, lost jobs, businesses closing and our country’s soaring debts – these restrictions cost lives and damage people’s life chances. And they put people into poverty.

I have repeatedly been making the case to the Government that if it wants to impose measures to slow the transmission of Covid, it needs to demonstrate that these restrictions cause more good than harm.  

We need rigorous cost-benefit analysis comparing the non-Covid health impacts and the impact on society, livelihoods and businesses of all these measures, as well as the actual Covid impact.

At all times we – parliamentarians and the public – must be sure that the prescription is not more damaging than the disease itself, and that the restrictions we implement are saving more lives than they cost.

One of the principal responsibilities of Governments in a prosperous society is to make sure that we protect, nurture and empower our most vulnerable. Those of us with laptop-based jobs and home offices should feel even more of a responsibility to make ourselves aware of the impact these measures have on those who work in restaurants, small business owners or businesses that rely on travel. These interventions hurt people. Just a whisper from Government can destabilise businesses.

So in the absence of a Government cost benefit analysis, the Legatum Institute last year put forward a blueprint for a impact assessment tool that could be used to guide policy and communicate the reasons behind policy, to the public. And more recently, the Institute has been modelling the impacts of the last 18 months on society’s poorest. The results are striking.

In particular, they show the significant impact of economic and social restrictions on poverty levels. Between the Spring of 2020 and the Spring of 2021, poverty levels went up by 900,000. The largest driver of this increase was the deterioration in the labour market that was associated with the response to the pandemic.  

Essentially, lockdowns and restrictions caused just shy of one million more people to experience poverty.

That is not to say that Covid itself would not have had any impacts on the labour market, without restrictions. The point is that the Government has made these decisions without any attempt to understand these impacts.

Through our modelling we see that following the extraordinary NHS vaccination rollout and the once so-called “irreversible road to freedom” poverty was projected to fall by 700,000 between Spring 2021 and Spring 2022 – this time because of the strengthening of the labour market, unemployment falling and wage reductions for those on furlough ending too.

But renewed restrictions and constant hints of tougher measures after Christmas means that we are putting these poverty gains at risk. Ministers must level with the public: these measures are likely to cause hundreds of thousands of people to have to endure a life of poverty.  And poverty leads to lower life expectancy.

We have a social contract with these people.  The Government committed in 2019 to “level up” and to bring opportunity to all four corners of the UK. Ministers then removed the £20 a week Universal Credit uplift, despite the fact that many claiming it cannot work and are experiencing rising inflation and higher energy bills.  

Ministers did make the choice to increase work incentives through Universal Credit, but by destabilising the labour market once more we are now looking again at keeping around three quarters of a million people in poverty by imposing more restrictions on our economy and society.

Good, solid governing relies on data, evidence and a clear articulation of the problem we are trying to solve. It isn’t good enough to implement such harmful measures on the basis of “early and patchy” data, when we know for sure that these further restrictions and constant messaging will increase poverty, prevent people from working their way out of poverty, and cost lives.

Civilised and prosperous societies protect their most vulnerable and ensure that all of us remain vigilant to people’s suffering.  

I ask the Government to ensure that as they contemplate further restrictions, they are open with the British people about the active choice they would be making to damage the lives of our most vulnerable – those who are doing all they can to work their way out of poverty.

Baroness Stroud of Fulham is chief executive of the Legatum Institute and a former Conservative welfare adviser