At a time when Mr Johnson knows he must show that he is delivering on his pledge to “level up”, many of the poorest households feeling even more financial strain than they did before the 2019 election is a deeply damaging prospect for the Prime Minister.

James Frayne, the pollster and founding partner of Public First, an influential policy research agency, said the NICs increase and an expected rise in the energy price cap “could hit working class voters so hard they might never forgive”. He added: “Politics could soon be dominated by living standards – a bad place for any incumbent government.”

At the same time, Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, warns in The Telegraph that the Government will pay a “heavy price” if the NICs rise is not seen by the public to be spent wisely on the NHS.

Mr Johnson is separately conscious that his pledge to “take back control” of Britain’s borders will be doubted if voters continue to see images of scores of migrants crossing the Channel illegally.

Michael Gove’s White Paper setting out the Government’s proposed levelling up policies is currently due to be published early in January, having been delayed from its intended publication earlier this month. 

Despite Covid-19 still taking up significant time across Whitehall, ministers are conscious that Mr Gove’s proposals must appear urgently if they are to stand any chance of being implemented and having a tangible impact before the next election. 

For that reason, according to the Whitehall source, the paper is likely to appear “in the next couple of weeks, come what may”. 

Will Tanner, a former deputy head of the No10 policy unit, who now runs the Onward think tank, said that Mr Johnson will be starting what should have been a “dream year” with “a knot in his stomach”.

He added: “The future of his premiership depends on getting three big things right in the first few months of 2022 – getting coronavirus under control, making good on levelling up and kickstarting economic growth.”

Risk of leadership bids from Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss

Mr Gove’s responsibility for the levelling up agenda places a colossal amount of responsibility on the man who famously ditched Mr Johnson during the 2016 leadership contest to launch his own bid. The Prime Minister has also urged the Levelling Up Secretary to find an urgent solution to the post-Grenfell fire safety crisis that has trapped many leaseholders in their homes.

Another urgent issue on Mr Johnson’s desk is the post-Brexit negotiations over the Northern Ireland Protocol, which became an even bigger headache for the Prime Minister when Lord Frost resigned from the Cabinet.

Mr Johnson believes the talks must be resolved by the end of February, ahead of the run-up to the Northern Ireland Assembly election. Ministers believe that there is a realistic prospect of the poll resulting in a Sinn Fein first minister, which could herald a new era of frostiness between Stormont Castle and Downing Street.