Boris Johnson has endured what must count as the worst week of his political career. Fury at allegations of parties in Downing Street during lockdown has morphed into a direct threat to his leadership, not helped by his own clumsy handling of the episode. Conservative backbenchers appear content to reserve their judgment until Sue Gray, the civil servant, finishes her report into events in No 10. However, a Tory MP from the Red Wall has defected to Labour. David Davis, the senior Brexiteer, melodramatically called for the Prime Minister to go on the floor of the Commons.
Next week promises to bring further tribulations, as well as fresh calls on the Prime Minister to resign. It is pointless to speculate about what Ms Gray’s investigation will conclude, but it is unlikely that Mr Johnson will emerge unscathed. Too many people have already made up their minds about what happened in Downing Street during the lockdowns. The onus will be on Tory MPs to weigh up whether he deserves a chance to put this sorry affair behind him and try to rescue his premiership.
This newspaper supported Mr Johnson when he resigned from the Cabinet over Theresa May’s disastrous Brexit policy. It backed him when he ran for the Tory leadership. He successfully took Great Britain out of the EU’s orbit. He deserves considerable credit for the vaccine triumph, as well as the booster programme that contributed to England avoiding a lockdown over omicron. The Prime Minister retains a confidence in Britain that contrasts favourably with the strangled attempts at patriotism by Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Arguably, the focus on Mr Johnson’s conduct during a pandemic that is now passing is peculiar given that the world faces a fresh crisis in the form of a threatened Russian invasion of Ukraine.
British policy towards Ukraine also points to a rare area where the Government has shown admirable clarity and strength of purpose. By providing anti-tank weapons to Kyiv, the UK has done something concrete to deter Vladimir Putin’s aggression, while other allies have shamefully dithered.
Elsewhere, however, Government policy is confused, strategically disastrous, or detached from the interests of Tory voters. The Government has become distracted by what the former minister Lord Marland, in an interview with this newspaper, described as “fluffy” policies. It is all very well turning the Conservatives into the party of animal sentience or net zero, but it hardly gives anyone a good reason to back Mr Johnson at the time when declining real wages and surging energy prices threaten to impoverish millions of people, including middle-income earners.
Such fripperies point to a wider malaise in British politics, addressed by the former prime minister Tony Blair in a speech this week. He expressed frustration that neither of the two major parties is thinking radically about the major problems that confront the UK. Political debate has become all about politics, he said, and there is no coherent plan for Britain’s future. The Government’s National Insurance rise to fund the NHS is a case in point: it might have looked like an obvious political victory when it was announced, but it will do little obvious to improve the health-care system while infuriating working people.
In the coming months, the UK will have to contend with two great challenges – embracing the possibilities of Brexit and recovering from the pandemic – that should also be opportunities in the hands of an ebullient politician, convinced of the country’s ability to succeed. The benefits of Brexit have barely been exploited. The Government has contented itself thus far with minor changes to regulations, when the real prize is turning the UK into the most competitive economy in the developed world. The Prime Minister’s own actions, meanwhile, have allowed the UK to exit Covid restrictions earlier than many other nations.
But to seize these opportunities, the Prime Minister will have to do far more than rearrange the deckchairs in No 10 or announce a few populist policies of questionable value. He will have to govern very differently, and his unwise experiment in higher taxes and a bigger state will have to end. Belatedly, he will have to think strategically about what sort of country he wants the UK to become, as well as how that will benefit his voters. Above all, he will need to prove that, when the next election comes, he will be able to provide a compelling answer to the question: why should I vote Tory?
Can he do it? Many have written off Mr Johnson before. Next week he may face his greatest test yet.
