The massing of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is a threat to national sovereignty, to a nascent democracy and to the international order. With Russia now in sharp relative economic and demographic decline, Vladimir Putin is attempting to revive his country’s Soviet-era heft by allocating a grotesquely large share of its GDP to the military, propping up tame dictators and carving up his neighbours. Having already illegally annexed Crimea and sponsored conflict in eastern Ukraine, the UK Government today cites intelligence showing that his goal might be to install a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv.
Throughout this crisis, the UK’s position has been consistent and correct. While swathes of Europe have danced amorally with the Russian bear to maintain the flow of gas, Liz Truss has hardened Britain’s opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, arguing that it leaves the continent vulnerable to blackmail by an imperialist regime. British anti-tank weapons poured into Ukraine last week, curiously avoiding German airspace.
No one is considering direct British participation in any war over Ukraine. The UK’s strategy is to attempt to deter Mr Putin by making an invasion as costly as possible. Mrs Truss and the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, have provided leadership at a moment when the Western alliance is embarrassingly divided. At a press conference last week, US president Joe Biden said that a “minor incursion” into Ukraine’s territory might trigger a softer Western response – an extraordinary remark that could easily have been interpreted as an invitation to Mr Putin to try his luck.
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron, in a speech pitched to help his re-election effort, lashed out at the UK over fishing and Northern Ireland – and argued that Europe should negotiate separately from Washington and Nato. Germany has actually sought to placate Russia, undermining attempts to provide a strong Western response. Berlin has refused to provide arms to the Ukrainians, rubbing salt into the wound by offering to send a field hospital instead – and has even reportedly blocked weapons deliveries from Nato ally Estonia.
Germany, now governed by a socialist/green alliance, is shuttering its remaining nuclear plants, leaving it dangerously reliant upon energy imports from the east. However, the rot appears to go deeper than mere commercial considerations. Berlin is now one of the weakest links in Nato, with some experts saying that its pitiful compromises are making conflict more likely, not less.
For all its claims to be a geopolitical superpower and a moral force for the liberal order on the world stage, the EU itself has been shamefully silent on this crisis. While member states, such as Poland and the Baltic States, have stood alongside the UK in solidarity with Ukraine, Brussels has failed to use its convening power to forge a common response. As usual, it is Nato that has been left to play that vital role.
Even if Mr Putin does not in the end launch a full-blown invasion, the events of the past few weeks will still be a victory of sorts for the Kremlin. He will have shown that the unity and resolve that characterised the West’s opposition to the Soviet Union for much of the Cold War has gone. In its place there are a few nations still determined to stand up for sovereignty and against aggression, but many others led by weak politicians who will do anything for an easy life.
We were told that when Britain voted for Brexit, it had turned its back on the world. This was always a gross, self-serving mischaracterisation. Liberated from the debilitating European sphere of political influence, we are, in fact, free to do what Britain has historically done and advance the case for freedom. Much of Europe’s leadership, by contrast, is only interested in a narrow definition of its own lazy self-interest, which amounts to little more than protecting the economic status quo and managing decline. As this crisis intensifies, it is increasingly clear that it is only with strength and resolve that we will stand a chance of avoiding a potentially devastating conflict.
