Vladimir Putin has reportedly said that talks with President Biden have ignored his “fundamental concerns”. With the imminent threat of war on the European continent, this is worrying to hear, and all world leaders should continue to encourage further dialogue.
We must also be clear, however, that if Putin’s “fundamental concerns” are that most former Soviet countries now want to chart their own path and strike alliances with whomever they choose, the West won’t compromise on their right as sovereign nations to do so. We must stand together for freedom.
Putin’s essay on the “Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” explains his motivations better than I can, but his aim is clear: he wants the countries of the former Warsaw Pact to return to the fold. If they won’t, he’ll make them pay a heavy price. In many places, he’s already started.
Since Putin came to power, Russian cyberattacks have paralysed Estonian institutions and brought down the Polish electoral commission’s website. The Kremlin has attempted a coup in Montenegro, carried out assassinations in Bulgaria, maintained a vice-like grip on Belarus, and used Moldova’s energy dependence as a means to undermine its pro-Western government.
Russia’s spreading of disinformation stokes division and interferes with democratic processes. Organised crime networks with strong ties to the state operate across the Western Balkans, and illegal migration has been weaponised in Poland and Lithuania.
The Kremlin or its proxies have spoofed GPS signals for ships in the Black Sea, taken de facto control of the Donbas, and harassed Ukrainian shipping in the Sea of Azov. In the Caspian region, they’ve been involved with conflicts in Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Amid this litany of malevolence, the biggest roll of the dice previously had been the annexation of the Crimea in 2014, but now a bigger gamble is looking ever more likely. More than 120,000 Russian troops are massed on the borders of Ukraine and we know that tens of thousands more have their marching orders to head to the region.
Putin had more than enough military mass around Ukraine to leverage a seat at the negotiating table months ago, and yet he keeps sending more – drawing on troops, aircraft and amphibious shipping from Russia’s far north and east. Short range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, have arrived in Belarus. We should all be clear that his essay may well be more than wishful thinking; he could be days away from giving the order to invade.
The UK has been the leading European supporter of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Operation Orbital has already trained more than 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers, we’re helping develop their navy, and we’ve sent thousands of light, anti-armour, defensive weapons.
Putin well understands that Nato is not spoiling for a fight. When he claims we are, he does so only to reinforce his false narrative. Ukraine is not a Nato member and we will not play an active part in any conflict that happens there. If he thinks that shows a lack of Western resolve, he’s wrong. Our Prime Minister is leading internationally in the development of a punitive set of sanctions that will hit the Russian economy hard and make Putin even more of a diplomatic pariah.
Moreover, Ukraine doesn’t need the West to make this the deadliest of conflicts. They’ll fight for every inch of their country, and if it’s taken, they’ll fight on through a resistance movement that will last indefinitely. In the first Chechen war, Russia lost nearly 6,000 troops when seeking to stamp out an insurgency in a population of just 1.4 million. The population of Ukraine is 40 times bigger and its military is vastly better equipped. No matter how much control Putin has over the media, his people will surely not accept the crippling economic cost and the catastrophic loss of young life.
Finally, if Putin thinks that this is a way of pushing Nato back, he misunderstands two things: Nato is not an expansionist but a defensive alliance. Sovereign countries join because they share our values, and seek the safety of collective defence. Second, our Nato allies will understandably feel threatened by his aggression in Ukraine and so we’ll reinforce their eastern borders, rather than stepping away as he demands. He will have encouraged precisely the thing he claims to fear.
That’s why the Prime Minister has directed that we will prepare to significantly increase our military offer to Nato and help protect our allies. Early next week, ministers will be considering options to increase troop numbers and military capabilities in Estonia substantially, as well as the deployment of fast jets, warships and specialist facilities to the region. Putin has interfered with too many former Soviet countries in pursuit of his tsarist imperialism. Some of these, such as Serbia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, want friendship with Russia and the West – we respect their right to do so. Others rejoice in their hard won freedom and want to face westwards. Putin should respect their right to do so, too. And if he won’t, others in the West must now match our resolve to make Nato again stand tall as the beacon for freedom it was established to be.
James Heappey is Minister for the Armed Forces
