Researchers said it was clear that the public would naturally socially distance and cut their contacts even without state intervention, leading to a large drop in deaths.
Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and another of the study’s authors, said: “Lockdowns in Europe and the US decreased Covid-19 mortality by a measly 0.2 per cent on average, while the economic costs of lockdowns were enormous. I find zero evidence to support lockdowns.”
One of the studies cited in the review found that voluntary behavioural changes are 10 times as important as mandatory behavioural changes in combating Covid. It found that lockdowns only regulate “a fraction of our potential contagious contacts” and cannot enforce hand washing, coughing etiquette or how close people stand together in supermarkets.
Countries such as Denmark, Finland and Norway, which all kept mortality relatively low, allowed people to go to work, use public transport and meet privately at home during the first lockdown, the authors said.
‘Lockdowns should be rejected out of hand’
They concluded: “Lockdowns during the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic have had devastating effects. They have contributed to reducing economic activity, raising unemployment, reducing schooling, causing political unrest, contributing to domestic violence and undermining liberal democracy.
“These costs to society must be compared to the benefits of lockdowns, which our meta-analysis has shown are marginal at best. Such a standard benefit-cost calculation leads to a strong conclusion: lockdowns should be rejected out of hand as a pandemic policy instrument.”
Critics of the study claimed the authors have conflicting interests, particularly Prof Hanke, who has been an outspoken critic of restrictions that damage the economy.
Many scientists believe lockdowns were essential before vaccines and antiviral drugs were available, with one study suggesting the first lockdown saved 20,000 lives in Britain. Imperial College estimated that lockdowns saved about 3.1 million lives in Europe, including 470,000 in Britain.
