Nonetheless, Putin can see the writing on the wall; Europe’s rush to decarbonise threatens eventually to cut him out of the mix in any case. As it is, limiting supply to Europe has already interrupted a decades-long record of steady reductions in emissions, forcing electricity generation back onto heavily polluting coal and oil. 

In any case, Putin would be right to think his product has a better long term future in China than it does in Europe, even if tying his fortunes to the Chinese dragon is not an ideal outcome for him either.

Whatever the long term geo-strategic implications of today’s energy crisis, the short term outlook looks grim. The EU can attempt to take the sting out of surging prices with subsidies all it likes, but if there is no gas, it won’t make a great deal of difference. 

Rationing and blackouts become inevitable. Good luck, Ursula, in devising a plan which attempts to divide up the “share and share alike” pain by choosing which factories to close and where. It’ll make the row over immigrant quotas seem like a vicar’s tea party by comparison.

For the moment, the battle of wills resembles a high stakes game of chicken, with each side hurtling towards each other in a lorry packed with explosives across a single lane bridge. The best hope for Europe is that it manages to string diplomatic efforts out for long enough to see it through the winter surge in demand. But that would only give temporary relief. 

Europe has foolishly joined itself at the hip to Russia, and cannot face up to the costs of separation. Small wonder France’s Emmanuel Macron shows every sign of transmogrifying into Édouard Daladier, the French head of state who appeased Hitler over the Sudetenland. With an election to win, Macron wants to be seen as the President who saved Europe from war. Small wonder too that Putin feigns admiration for the “realism” of Macron’s diplomacy; Putin is winning, and can therefore afford his magnanimity.