There could be a 10-fold increase the number of people applying to change their gender in Scotland after controversial legislation abolished the need for medical diagnosis.

Shona Robison, the SNP’s Social Justice Secretary, admitted that the number of applications for a gender recognition certificate (GRC) in Scotland was expected to surge from around 30 to between 250 and 300 per year.

But feminist campaign group Fair Play for Women claimed there could actually be a 100-fold rise under the legislation’s plans to make Scotland the first part of the UK to allow people to self-identify their legal gender.

Amid concerns that predatory men could exploit the new law to access female-only areas, the group warned the Bill “allows birth sex to be hidden”.

Ms Robison insisted a 10-fold rise was a “small number in the context of the Scottish population” and insisted the Bill has no “direct effect” on single-sex spaces, such as women’s toilets and changing rooms.

She urged people not to “conflate” the issue of violence against women with transgender rights. An accompanying “fact sheet” issued by the Scottish Government argued: “Trans people can and have been using facilities that match their gender for years and they will continue to do so.”

Medical diagnosis no longer required

The Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill would remove the legal requirement for applicants to prove a medical diagnosis of gender dysphoria, a mismatch between the biological sex they were born with and the way they see and describe their gender.

The legislation would also cut the time in which someone must live in their “acquired gender” from two years to only three months and open up the process to 16 and 17-year-olds.

Applicants aged under 18 would be offered and encouraged to accept the option of a conversation with National Records of Scotland to talk through the process.

A three-month “reflection period” would be also introduced for applicants of all ages, meaning they would have to wait a total of six months before their gender could be changed.

Scots who “knowingly” make a false declaration when applying for a gender recognition certificate face a prison sentence of up to two years and a fine.

Dissent within the SNP

In an attempt to prevent transgender people in the rest of the UK travelling to Scotland to take advantage of the shorter process, only those born, adopted or “ordinarily resident” north of the border would be allowed to apply.

But the plans have triggered the fiercest internal opposition within the SNP that Ms Sturgeon has faced since becoming First Minister more than seven years ago, with around 10 MSPs wanting a free vote.

Kate Forbes, the Finance Secretary, is understood to be among those who have deep misgivings. However, Ms Sturgeon’s spokesman said those in the Cabinet are bound by collective responsibility.

Feminist campaigners have vowed to take the Scottish Government to court over the Bill, arguing it exceeds Holyrood’s powers by effectively “changing who can be recognised as what sex anywhere in the UK”.

The backlash against the proposals intensified last month after the UK’s equalities watchdog said they risk damaging women and should be shelved.

‘Simplified process’

Unveiling the Bill, Ms Robison said: “Trans men and women are among the most stigmatised in our society and many find the current system for obtaining a gender recognition certificate to be intrusive, medicalised and bureaucratic.

“This Bill does not introduce any new rights for trans people. It is about simplifying and improving the process for a trans person to gain legal recognition, which has been a right for 18 years.”

The legislation is expected to easily win parliamentary approval, thanks to the support of Green, Liberal Democrat and a majority of Labour MSPs.

But Meghan Gallacher, the Scottish Tories’ gender reform spokesman, said: “The proposals as they stand do not protect women’s rights. They do not offer enough protection for women’s safety.”

A spokesman for Fair Play for Women said: “A GRC doesn’t just allow a trans person to get a birth certificate saying they were born a sex they were not. It makes it a criminal offence for an official to reveal a GRC holder’s birth sex.”

LGBTI groups warmly welcomed the Bill, saying it would lead to a “massive improvement” in the process allowing transgender Scots to be “legally recognised as who they are”.