In just days, Putin has inadvertently engineered a tectonic shift in European energy policy, moving at a faster pace than expected. It risks decimating his oil and gas industry, which accounts for 15pc of Russia’s economic output, over a third of government revenue and around half of exports. 

Despite such dependence and the threat of renewables, the Kremlin has made little effort to diversify its economy.

“What we’re seeing is a rapid structural realignment away from a dependency on Russian hydrocarbons,” says Benjamin Schmitt, a research fellow at Harvard University and the US government’s former European energy security adviser.

“In a single week, Germany has rolled out what amounts to a massive, and long overdue pivot in its energy policy.

“Putin’s illegal aggression against Ukraine is rapidly moving Russia into pariah state territory – not a regime that European nations want to rely on for energy imports any longer.”

As the world’s third-biggest oil producer and second-largest in gas, Russia has become a particularly vital source in Europe. 

Around 40pc of EU imports of natural gas come from Russia, with countries such as Germany, Poland and the Netherlands becoming far more reliant in recent decades. 

The region’s vulnerability to Moscow’s iron grip on supply has grown while many countries, such as the Netherlands, have wound down their own gas production.

Russia is also a major supplier of oil and coal to Europe – around 27pc and 47pc of imports, respectively. 

Just over a week into warfare, however, and companies are already shunning the supply, attempting to find alternative sources that won’t be caught in the crossfire. Russian oil is trading at a discount of up to $20 per barrel compared to crude from elsewhere.

In the short-term, European leaders are thinking about how to keep the lights on next winter if supplies from Russia are disrupted. But in the long-term, a huge price will be paid by Putin as countries wake up and take action over their overreliance on Russian goods.

Leaked documents this week suggested the EU is readying a blue-print for massively shifting the balance of its energy supply. The International Energy Agency believes Europe can feasibly cut imports of Russian gas by a third within a year. 

The plan, revealed by Bloomberg, seeks to find new LNG sources from the likes of Japan, India and China; accelerate the rollout of solar energy; introduce minimum gas reserves and push for greater energy efficiency.

Whether the taps are suddenly turned off or Europe’s Russian gas addiction ends slowly, Moscow faces a huge blow to its economy – and coffers. 

A hint of the possible damage was modelled by Oxford Economics, which estimates that Russian GDP would take a 7pc hit in a scenario where its gas supplies are restricted and the war continues into 2023. The eurozone faces a 3pc knock to GDP.

Liam Peach, economist at Capital Economics, says the long-term problems already facing the Russian economy from the shift away from fossil fuels, as well as an ageing population, will now hit sooner.

He warns: “There’s now going to be this concerted effort to move away from Russia, that’s going to hit quite hard. Although things were looking like they would hit in 10-15 years, it could be sooner than that now.”

Moscow will face “very little income growth”, Peach adds, a shift towards a “very slow growing” economy and “a big black hole in Russia’s public finances at some point in a decade’s time.”

However, experts say completely weaning Europe off Russian supply will not happen overnight. 

Jack Sharples, a research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, says: “What we have seen right now is a step change in attitudes towards commerce with Russia more broadly.”

But he adds: “Given the relatively limited alternative supply options, the only thing that could have been done to reduce European dependence on Russian gas is to reduce consumption of gas more broadly. 

“This becomes a question of the energy transition and there we come up against the challenges of how we consume gas.”

While Russia could find new buyers for oil and gas, particularly in Asia, it again faces a race against time. 

Last week China and Russian state giant Gazprom signed a 30-year deal for Moscow to supply it with up to 50 billion cubic metres of gas per year. However, Beijing, considered an ally of Russia, has refused to support – or condemn – events in Ukraine and many stress a shift to new buyers will not happen quickly.