Ukraine crisis puts SNP plans for another Scottish independence vote in doubt

SNP plans for a new independence referendum could be shelved again due to the Ukraine crisis, the party’s Westminster leader has suggested.

Ian Blackford said that his short-term focus was on the Russian invasion and called on his party to be “respectful of the responsibilities” it had and “mindful” of the global situation.

Nicola Sturgeon has continued to insist that a new referendum will be held by next year, and claimed last month that “preparatory work is under way” to enable it to be held.

However, there are significant doubts over her ability to deliver, with the constitution reserved to Westminster and the UK Government refusing to countenance allowing an independence vote to go ahead.

Heavy SNP losses

Ms Sturgeon has abandoned plans twice previously for a new referendum following heavy SNP losses in the 2017 general election and in 2020, due to Covid-19.

A third failure would risk enraging elements of the independence movement, who accuse her of making little progress in delivering on the SNP’s central aim.

However, Mr Blackford, speaking to the PA news agency, raised the prospect of the Russian invasion leading to a further delay.

He said a new referendum should “take place in a timely manner” but cautioned those wanting immediate progress on organising a second vote to be “mindful of where we are” given events elsewhere in the world.

Asked about his party’s plans for independence, he said: “The only thing I am focusing on today is Ukraine.

“To those that are expressing a desire for us to get on with our job, of course we will do so, but we have to be mindful of where we are.”

Pressed further on whether indyref2 will be delayed by the war in Ukraine, just like it was by the pandemic, Mr Blackford said: “Well, we have to play the ball where it lies just now and the only thing that I’m focusing on today is Ukraine.”

He also reiterated the SNP’s position that nuclear weapons would have to be removed from Scotland in the event of independence, despite warnings that the policy could see a Scottish state denied Nato membership.

Rear Admiral John Gower, a former assistant chief of defence staff, warned that the plan to expel Trident submarines from their Faslane base would place Europe at risk.

Removal of Trident

While it is SNP policy for an independent Scotland to join Nato, he told The Sunday Times that the alliance should make clear that forcing the removal of Trident would see a Scottish application blocked.

“Seeing the departure of nuclear weapons from an independent Scotland might be seen as an easy gimme, a cosy feel-good, risk-free by-product of independence for many Scottish voters,” he said.

“However, they need to be made aware, on a factual basis, of the repercussions for Scotland, the rest of the UK, the wider Nato alliance.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been widely seen to have been more likely because it is not a Nato member, meaning other members are not obliged to come to its defence.

However, Mr Blackford said his party’s stance had not changed. 

“There is a threat to the world from nuclear weapons,” he said. “The idea that having nuclear weapons provides a deterrence that removes that threat is far-fetched, to say the least.”

Responding to Mr Blackford’s comments about a referendum, Donald Cameron, constitution spokesman for the Scottish Tories, said a new vote was “the last thing Scotland needs right now”.

He added: “In an increasingly uncertain world, the nationalists should not be considering constitutional upheaval by attempting to break Scotland away from the UK.”

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