But when it comes to borrowing next year and afterwards the picture is going to be a good deal worse. I suspect that the OBR will be forecasting borrowing next year almost £50bn higher than it suggested in October.

Even so, I reckon that the OBR will suggest that the Chancellor has about £23bn of leeway before breaking his main fiscal rule. In principle, this allows him scope to be much more generous in his help for beleaguered households and companies than almost anyone expects. As it is, I expect him to give some sort of relief package amounting to £5bn-£10bn. But this will be next to nothing compared to the blows raining down on households from higher prices and tax rises.

Rishi Sunak is under huge pressure to rescind the already announced increases in National Insurance contributions. In my view, this would be exactly the right thing to do. There are two arguments holding him back. First, Mr Sunak continues to be extremely concerned that the high debt to GDP ratio leaves the government dangerously exposed in a world where both inflation and interest rates are moving up.

The second reason is straightforwardly political. The Chancellor wants to get himself in a position from which, before the election, he can say that he has got on top of the problem of high public borrowing and is therefore, at that point, able to cut taxes.

In my view, this is a mistake, both economically and politically. People will not easily forget the increase in National Insurance contributions. Moreover, the drive to improve the public finances must be weighed against the health of the economy. 

It makes no sense to be hitting the economy now with such huge tax rises. The borrowing and debt numbers are high and must come down. But there is no necessity for them to be brought down at precisely the pace that the Treasury seems to think necessary.

Roger Bootle is chairman of Capital Economics roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com