If the Chancellor wants to continue with the same real terms increase in spending, he will have to substantially increase the spending totals in money terms. He didn’t do this now but he may consider doing so in the autumn. He shouldn’t. If he does not do it, then the spending totals will automatically be cut in real terms relative to what he fixed before. This would be a form of austerity by stealth.
In practice, of course, he could adopt a middle-of-the-road solution under which the existing spending totals remained as they were for most departments but he announced increases for a select few – especially for defence.
In this way, a policy that actually involved cutting government spending in real terms could be presented as one in which he increased it in money terms.
The Chancellor was right to say that there is more to defence and security than whatever appears in the defence budget. If we ensure that our economy grows faster then that itself will make us stronger and more secure.
He implied that the main way to strengthen our economic performance and therefore bolster our security is to reduce the debt ratio. Yet, as important as this, if not more so, is tax.
Our current tax system and the rates of taxation inhibit rather than foster economic growth. Reforming the tax system and reducing key tax rates is therefore a way of bolstering our security.
Of course, the Chancellor did announce some tax cuts but they were small and clearly politically motivated. By cutting fuel duty he has eased the pain for motorists, but the amount of help is small in relation to the increase in fuel prices so far. And there is no good reason to be favouring this group.
It would have been better to have used the money to reduce the increase in National Insurance contributions. This is a thoroughly bad tax which penalises work, and does not fall on pensions or investment income.