Tinkering with tax hikes that may push us on to the wrong side of the Laffer Curve – that is, the point at which, if the government tries to raise more in taxation, the negative effects of taxation on growth are so great that tax revenue is reduced – is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Our demographic time-bomb is ticking, meaning the demands on our two largest government departments by expenditure – Health and Work and Pensions – will only intensify. Productivity has been stagnant since the financial crisis. Government debt has hit £2.3 trillion.
Lowering government spending may be as unpopular with the public as it is unpalatable to the politicians, but our current levels are indefensible.
The Government is hammering household budgets while wasting billions on HS2 – a project that made little economic sense even before the pandemic normalised working from home.
Despite David Cameron’s promise of a “bonfire of the quangos”, there are now 295 of these organisations costing – with the exclusion of NHS England and the Education and Skills Funding Agency which account for 83pc of the overall spend – £35bn per year.
Many of these arms-length bodies splash cash with no accountability and exercise enormous control over how we live our lives. There is scant justification for government involvement in culture, media or sport, and yet in 2018/19 we spent £7.1bn on Nadine Dorries’ department.
Childcare subsidies are poorly targeted, but state intervention in the sector costs the taxpayer £6bn per year.
And the public sector is beginning to crowd out the private: between September and December 2021, there was a rise in public sector employment of 24,000 compared with a drop in the private sector of 37,000.
Prior to the pandemic, it was found that the former enjoyed a 7pc wage premium: now we face acute labour shortages, many start-and-scale ups simply won’t be able to compete. Yet when government announced a pay freeze back in 2020, it was met with widespread outrage.
None of this is to mention the appalling waste that arises when public servants are spending someone else’s money – £850m on Eat Out to Help Out; a new tank fleet that cost £3.5bn but couldn’t travel faster than 20mph safely.
We will soon be pouring 12pc of GDP into the NHS, above the OECD average, even though we have fewer doctors, nurses or hospital beds than countries where spending is at similar levels.
This waste leaves no room for lower, simpler taxes and stunts economic growth – though it does put paid to the absurd notion that there are no more savings to be found.
Regrettably, in Chancellor’s Spring Statement, he is more likely to throw a few million to his “Rt Honourable” friends for a museum upgrade here, or a few hanging baskets there, than he is to show any real commitment to reining in spending.
Annabel Denham is the director of communications at the Institute of Economic Affairs