The ambiguous wording of the draft security agreement has raised the question of whether further turmoil could give China the pretext to intensify its operations in the Solomons.
‘Unease and insecurity’
Matthew Wale, the leader of the opposition party in the Solomon Islands’ Parliament, told the New York Times he feared that the “very general, overarching, vague” agreement could be used for anything.
Dr Anna Powles, a Pacific expert at Massey University in New Zealand, said the lack of transparency around the fake guns consignment pointed to the natural conclusion that the police were “training with replica weapons to upskill to the real version”.
She added: “The leaking of the draft agreement on security cooperation is in a climate of considerable unease and insecurity.”
Dr Powles predicted a robust debate over the proposed arrangement and domestic and regional pressure to water it down but said: “If it comes into force in its current form, it’s absolutely a game-changer. It has the potential to degrade and disrupt security in the Pacific Islands region.”
New Zealand and Australia, traditionally the Solomons’ main security partner, issued statements on Friday opposing the draft deal with Beijing. Both are wary of any moves that could allow China to cut off key supply lines into Asia and the Pacific in the event of a conflict.
Dr Euan Graham, from Singapore’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the leak confirmed suspicions “China has serious intentions to gain military access to the South Pacific, via some kind of toehold arrangement that allows for logistic support for PLA ships, aircraft and military personnel”.
The government of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare appeared to be “trying to play off Canberra against Beijing in order to maximise its material benefits,” he said. “It’s a dangerous game for small island states to play.”
