The UK is in a different position. Last week the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded its forecast for growth this year from 6pc to 3.8pc.

But the size of this revision is not a reflection of an enormous effect on the UK economy from the Russian invasion. Rather, it reflects the fact that much has occurred since the OBR’s last forecast, published in October, some five months ago. At Capital Economics, our forecast for the annual growth rate of GDP is not much changed from two months ago.

Of course, the UK is due to suffer some ill effects, not so much from our direct trade links with Russia, which are pretty minor, but more from the impact of higher energy prices on consumers and from the adverse impact on our exports of economic weakness elsewhere, especially in the eurozone, which remains our largest single export market. But, broadly offsetting these effects, the UK had a stronger-than-anticipated start to the year as the omicron wave came under control.

Two countries where the economic outlook now looks somewhat stronger than it did a couple of months ago are the US and Australia. Both countries have suffered some adverse impacts from the war but both also enjoyed a sharp bounceback in economic activity around the turn of the year as the damage from Covid fell back.

It now looks as though the economic outlook in China is a little weaker than it was a few months ago. This is not only because of the adverse impact of higher energy prices, and a tough response to the resurgence of Covid, but also because of the impact of weaker economic growth around the world on the demand for Chinese exports. In Japan too, GDP growth looks likely to be slightly lower than it did a few months ago.

The countries which now look to enjoy much stronger economic growth this year are the oil producers. It looks likely that growth in Saudi Arabia this year will be almost 3pc higher than seemed likely a few months ago.

Many emerging markets are due to enjoy some benefits from higher commodity prices. But these beneficial effects will be largely offset by the adverse effects of additional monetary tightening to control inflation. Brazil is a key example here.

This points the finger at the biggest risk from recent events for most countries in the world economy – including us. It is that central banks get spooked by the sharp rises in inflation into raising interest rates significantly. That could easily bring on a recession.

Roger Bootle is chairman of Capital Economics. You can email him at roger.bootle@capitaleconomics.com