That led to the Euromaidan protests, which were followed by Russia’s seizure of Crimea and the beginning of the war in 2014.
Even if Russia does agree, hurdles remain in Brussels.
The reaction when Kyiv put in an urgent application for membership at the start of the war said it all. There was initial enthusiasm and a desire to show solidarity.
But a few days later Brussels made it clear there would be no fast track admission. A number of member states including France are known to have reservations about rushing Ukraine into the bloc.
There are two countries at the talks in Istanbul, but Ukraine’s key demands require agreement from others, and it is far from clear it will be forthcoming.
So far the West has united in backing Ukraine against the Russian invasion, but the test of that unity will be in how far it is prepared to back Kyiv’s peace plan.
Crimea
Volodymyr Zelensky had already signalled Ukraine was prepared to give up hopes of Nato membership and agree to neutrality to secure peace.
But until now Ukraine’s territorial integrity has been a red line he has not been prepared to cross. His government has said he will not give up “an inch” of Ukrainian territory.
For the first time, Kyiv has signalled it is ready at least to talk about territory. It is not prepared to recognise Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Instead it wants lengthy new negotiations on the region.
It has proposed 15-year-long bilateral talks to determine Crimea’s final status, with a commitment from both sides not to attempt to decide it by force.
That is probably designed to kick the issue of Crimea into touch for now. Mr Zelensky knows he will be hard-pressed to get it back from Russia.
But he also knows Ukrainians will not forgive him if he concedes it to Russia. Fifteen years of talks should be enough to keep Crimea’s status open while tacitly agreeing to Russian troops staying for now.
Donbas
The question of the Donbas region is even trickier. Russia has announced it is shifting its war aims to concentrate on Donetsk and Luhansk.
