Much of the recovery then is artificial but as long as oil and gas receipts continue to flood into the country, Russia can keep rebuilding its hard currency reserves and ultimately weather the storm. 

“Self-sanctioning” in the shipping industry has been a resounding failure. Oil tankers continue to arrive in Russian ports.

Traffic in March has been only slightly lower than it was a year ago, and is higher than it was during the same month in 2016 and 2015, according to research from the Institute for International Finance. 

Even when the discount on Russian crude is factored in, oil revenues are near record levels, the IIF says. 

That’s not to say that sanctions have been toothless. Goldman Sachs is forecasting a 10pc downturn in Russia this year, while Barclays predicts a 12.4pc slump. 

But while Barclays expects another 3.5pc decline in 2023, Goldman thinks growth will have returned already with GDP expanding by 2.4pc and has pencilled in a record current account surplus of $200bn by the end of the year.

The West needs to leap into action, pressing home its advantage with a new round of sanctions that completely devastate the Russian economy, starting with a full energy embargo. Without that, sanctions will ultimately fail. 

Germany could withstand the shock, its own economic minister Robert Habeck has admitted that it would at least be able to make it through the summer with Russian supplies.

It is just too afraid to inflict further hardship on the German people, but if Lithuania and Poland are prepared to then why shouldn’t Europe’s biggest economy? They are even more dependent on the Kremlin’s oil and gas.

It may not come to that of course if Putin follows through with a threat to turn off the taps on Friday because the West refuses to meet Russian demands to pay for gas in roubles.