Global demand has rapidly outstripped supply; major exporter China has stockpiled fertiliser, sanctions have limited exports from Russia, while the war in Ukraine has caused the price of oil and natural gas, two key sources of fertiliser, to soar.
“Last year’s chemical fertiliser ban really affected us badly and we are still experiencing its effects, even though the ban was lifted later last year,” bemoans Upali Ekanayaka, 42, a farmer from Pitigoda.
“Now, farmers like us cannot afford to buy fertiliser, so how can we expect to see a proper harvest this year?”
In Pitigoda, the price of some nitrogen-based fertilisers used on paddy fields have increased from Rs1,500 (£3.50) to Rs25,000 (£58) in one year. Agro-chemical fertilisers are available but their cost has risen by over 700 percent.
“Farmers should be starting their next cultivation of paddy in May, ahead of a planned harvest in September,” explains Jeevika Weerahewa, agricultural economist at the University of Peradeniya.
“But, we are expecting yields to go down yet again over the next year because many farmers cannot afford to purchase fertilisers, without significant assistance from the government or the international donor community.”
‘It has gone from bad to worse’
The world is currently experiencing an unprecedented rise in fertiliser prices.
Nitrogen and phosphate-based fertilisers have each increased by four and three-fold respectively since 2020, according to the CRU Group, a London-based commodities intelligence company.
“We had fantastic harvests in 2020 and 2021 and so fertiliser demand went up but supply couldn’t match this, causing prices to increase,” says Rathin Roy, Managing Director of the Overseas Development Institute, a London-based think tank.
“At the same time, some major fertiliser purchases, including India, expressed a desire to switch to more organic farming, spooking some suppliers. Lastly, China announced that it would start stockpiling minerals and fertiliser for domestic use, which reduced the amount of products on the market.”
