Moreover, according to Economy Minister Robert Habek, the country can painlessly abandon Russian oil, which makes up only 12% of all deliveries to the country, in a matter of days.

It is not yet known exactly how they will ban the export of Russian oil: to introduce a complete embargo, such as, for example, on coal, which will be completely stopped from August; gradually, on a monthly basis, lowering the maximum export threshold (at the first stage, this may only affect tanker oil); or impose additional fees.

That is, it will not be a complete embargo. But, no matter how cynical it may sound, Berlin has changed its position, not because it is necessary to finally stop the Russian war machine in Ukraine, but because of the increase in tension within the EU itself.

The point of no return was the Kremlin’s decision to turn off the gas valve for Poland and Bulgaria because they refused to pay Gazprom in rubles. Gas prices in European spots went up sharply again. But if the EU does not respond, then Putin will continue to raise rates up to the complete cessation of gas supplies.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says a total embargo on Russian energy would plunge his country into recession. But even Italy, which depends on Russian gas no less than Germany, is ready to completely abandon it. While German politicians argue that this can provoke numerous protests in Germany and a decrease in the level of German support for Ukraine, which will force the government to almost curtail assistance to Ukraine.

Together with the president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” Mikhail Gonchar, TSN.ua figured out what is happening on the energy front of the war that Putin started.

gas blackmail

Putin’s threats to turn off the gas valve to “unfriendly European countries” (there are 21 of them on the Kremlin’s list) did not work. But this is for now – there are still five months until the next heating season.

Moscow has already gone on to raise rates by cutting off gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for refusing to pay in rubles. Yes, this is not a very painful step for them. Firstly, their contracts with Gazprom were already coming to an end in December of this year. Secondly, to cover the deficit, Greece and Germany will help them. Thirdly, they did not buy much Russian gas. And, fourthly, Polish and Bulgarian companies can safely go to arbitration.

According to Mikhail Gonchar, the capacity of the Bulgarian gas market is 3 billion cubic meters. Therefore, at least a third of Russian exports can be easily replaced by Azerbaijani gas. Moreover, such an agreement was reached last year. Plus, what part of Bulgaria will be able to take from the Greek LNG terminal.

Poland, according to the expert, will be even easier, given the LNG terminal in Swinoujsk, which will simply increase the import of liquefied gas. And in autumn, Baltic Pipe will be launched (should connect the GTS of Denmark and Poland – ed.). Therefore, Poland will be able to receive not only liquefied, but also pipeline Norwegian gas from the North Sea.

Plus, the Polish-Lithuanian interconnector was launched. Therefore, if there is not enough capacity in Swinoujsk during peak consumption in Poland, it will be possible to use the regasifier terminal in Klaipeda.

EU split

However, Bloomberg reported that it seems that four European companies that buy Russian gas paid off with Russia in rubles. It is not yet known what kind of companies these are, because only Hungary has officially declared its consent to pay in rubles. Ten more agreed to the payment scheme proposed by Gazprom: opening special accounts with Gazprombank, followed by the conversion of euros into rubles there.

Mikhail Gonchar suggests that these may be Hungarian and Serbian companies. However, according to him, Bloomberg did not name these companies, so this may be a deliberate throwing in of misinformation, as was the case with the Austrians, when the Russian media bravura declared that Vienna agreed to pay in rubles, and then the chancellor had to personally refute this.

According to Mikhail Gonchar, now we see the next stage of Putin’s gas war, the purpose of which is to further split the EU. Why is this the next step? For the Kremlin started this war last autumn, artificially creating a price escalation.

“The Europeans can withstand Russian blackmail. It’s another matter whether there is political will to do this at this or that national level. Hungary doesn’t have it at all – there is a different political will. But Hungary is not decisive. It’s about Germany. gas for the next heating season. There is no gas. Therefore, I do not exclude that if Europe withstands this pressure now, Russia’s next step is a complete cessation of gas supplies,” predicts Mikhail Gonchar.

What’s next?

The expert predicts that Russia may play the option of cutting off gas supplies to “unfriendly countries” for “unfriendly behavior towards Russia.” Germany, as the largest economy and the largest consumer of gas, will be the main object of blackmail.

“Already now, this is provoking a government crisis in Germany. On the one hand, we see the insistence and proposals of Robert Gabek, as vice chancellor, how to counter this. On the other hand, there is the position of Chancellor Scholz, which is simply amorphous, indistinct, and he changes it for several days. This already causes irritation even in the ranks of the Social Democrats (Scholz’s native party – ed.), where there are those who oppose him for indecision, “explains Mikhail Gonchar.

In Germany, they are shouting that the cessation of Russian gas supplies will be the collapse of German industry. However, no one can name exact figures for the economic decline or growth in the cost of gas for end consumers in bills.

“The collapse of German industry? They will usually talk about it. But the collapse of industry, and not only German industry, is high prices. And high prices have been maintained since last autumn, because this is Russia’s game. a few percent of GDP is not 45% that Ukraine will lose because of the Russian war. During the financial crisis of 2008-2009, they will increase, but there is a financial cushion,” says Mikhail Gonchar.

However, according to him, the situation is changing and the position of France and Italy is indicative here. Especially in Italy. The position of the Italian government is that even the most politically and economically favorable countries of Western Europe towards Russia, such as Italy and France, no longer support the German position, which supports only Hungary and, to a certain extent, Austria.

“Of course, without illusions, the next heating season will be even harder than this one. But this one was also painted like this: if Nord Stream 2 is not launched, a catastrophe awaits Europe without Russian gas. But, as we see, catastrophes in the end will not happened.” The war is being waged primarily in the information-psychological plane. The main thing for Russia is to prevent a complete energy embargo. And she will work in this direction,” concludes Mikhail Gonchar.

Additional fee

The Economist writes that, according to experts, the complete rejection of Russian energy sources will cost the German economy 0.5% of GDP. The German Central Bank is screaming about 5% of GDP.

However, even despite the tough sanctions that have brought Russia to the brink of default, the publication indicates that it can bypass them by continuing to buy weapons and receive foreign currency, although officially the receipt of dollars and euros in the country is prohibited.

That is why the idea of introducing additional export duties on Russian energy carriers is being discussed. What does it mean? Previously, TSN.ua partially explained this scheme. The idea is to pay Russia only the cost of oil and gas production. And accumulate the difference on a special account, the money from which can be used to restore Ukraine and support vulnerable segments of the EU population due to higher gas prices in bills and, for example, gasoline at gas stations.

This approach is proposed to be applied to Russian oil, the export of which the EU has almost agreed to limit. Since February 24, when Putin launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, the EU has paid Russia almost $15 billion for oil. Moreover, the EU (mainly Germany, Poland and the Netherlands) buys about half of the oil produced in Russia.

In addition, according to Mikhail Gonchar, the termination of the use of the Nord Stream-1 offered by Poland and Ukraine could put even more pressure on Russia.

“When Gazprom believes that it will turn the gas valve as it wants, or demand rubles for gas, it is necessary to demonstrate to them that their offensive actions can be counter-offensive actions that the Russians do not expect. One of them is the termination of the use of Nord Stream ” -one”. On Yamal, in Baydaratskaya Bay, pipelines were poorly laid, and they sailed away. Namely, these pipes carry gas into both streams. The second is not working, and the first is eating. Therefore, this is a matter of influencing Russia by optimizing the gas supply route. Then they will be forced to pump more gas in order to keep the market through our GTS,” concludes Mikhail Gonchar.