US intelligence believes that Russia’s war in Ukraine is likely to become more unpredictable and escalatory.
This could include the imposition of martial law, the reorientation of industrial production, or potentially escalating hostilities.
This was announced by the director of national intelligence of the US Congress Avril Haynes, informs CNN.
The next step, she said, will be difficult to envisage, partly because Putin is facing a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities, so the situation on the ground could increase the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means.
Avril Haynes said that intelligence suggests that Putin will resort to using nuclear weapons if he does not feel an existential threat to Russia.
Intelligence also believes that Putin’s goals go far beyond the eastern Donbass.
“Even if they are successful, we are not sure that the fight in Donbas will effectively end the war,” Haynes said.
In the short term, Haynes said, Putin wants to seize two eastern regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, control the city of Kherson, and potentially expand the land bridge around the country’s southern step to Transnistria. But in order to reach Transnistria, Putin needs to start a full mobilization inside Russia, which he has not yet done.
“Because both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make military progress, we don’t see a viable negotiating path, at least in the short term,” Haynes said.
Recall that the military expert named the real reason why Putin removed the “doomsday plane” and all aviation from the parade .