If Russian President Vladimir Putin nevertheless decides to use nuclear weapons, then it will be in Ukraine, and not on the territory of NATO countries.

This is stated in an article by The Atlantic Council.

“If Putin suffers a crushing defeat in the war with Ukraine, he will probably use nuclear weapons. If he believes that the very existence of his regime is threatened, he will try to change the situation, even if it means risky escalation. Nuclear weapons are his the last argument,” said Kir Lieber, senior fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, and Daryl Press, assistant professor of government at Dartmouth College.

The probability of a nuclear strike is very low, says Alexander Vershbow, a researcher at the Scowcroft Center and the Eurasian Center, ex-Deputy Secretary General of NATO.

” Not zero, but less than 5%. Putin is ringing the nuclear arsenal to the United States and its allies to keep it from expanding its involvement in the war and sending Ukraine advanced weapons that would give the Ukrainian military a decisive advantage,” Vershbow said.

At the same time, he admitted that if Russian troops suffered a humiliating defeat in the battle for Donbass, then supporters of radicalism could put pressure on Putin. They will demand that the head of the Kremlin demonstrate a threat to use nuclear weapons, but he is unlikely to do so.

“ He will not be the first to break the nuclear taboo. Most likely, the Kremlin will intensify attacks on the Ukrainian civilian population and infrastructure, as well as on the arms supply lines,” the expert said.

If Putin nevertheless decides to use nuclear weapons, then it will be in Ukraine against the military for some kind of military superiority, and not on the territory of NATO countries, Kir Lieber and Daryl Press say.

Putin could start by defiantly moving nuclear weapons, for example, to the Kaliningrad region, says Walter Slocombe, a member of the board of directors of The Atlantic Council, former US Under Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs.

” He can order a ‘demonstration’ – a nuclear explosion at a Russian test site ,” the expert said.

“Possible scenario: first Putin arranges a provocation, then strikes at an important target, such as Kiev. The goal is to force Ukraine to agree to” peace at any cost “. Putin will try to avoid the potential spread of radioactive fallout to any of the NATO countries,” said the honorary researcher Scowcroft Center, President of The Atlantic Council from 2005 to 2006 Jan Lodal.

Experts also noted that if Putin decides to use nuclear weapons, the United States and its allies will have to respond quickly and decisively.

Recall that US intelligence believes that Putin will use nuclear weapons only if he sees a real threat to Russia or the regime.

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