The Lviv IT Cluster spoke about the results of its own study “IT Research Resilience: The Impact of War on the Development of the IT Industry in Ukraine”,DOU.UA reports .
At the moment, about seven thousand Ukrainian IT specialists have been mobilized into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Troop. At the same time, from 50 to 57 thousand IT specialists went abroad after the start of a full-scale war, of which 64% are women. This represents 17%-20% of the total number of IT professionals as of December 2021.
In addition, according to IT Research Resilience, more than 52 thousand IT specialists now live in the western regions of Ukraine. Most of all (37 thousand) IT specialists are located in the Lviv region. Most specialists from other regions also moved here – about 4300. The next largest hub is Ivano-Frankivsk. In total, 4.5 thousand IT specialists live here, of which more than 2,100 have moved from other regions.
Next comes the Ternopil region, out of a total of 3.9 thousand IT specialists, the number of displaced specialists is about 800. Almost 2,300 IT specialists live in the Rivne region, of which more than 500 have been relocated. Of the 1,700 IT specialists in the Chernivtsi region, about 900 have been relocated. The total number of IT specialists in Transcarpathia and Volyn is 1,500 each. However, if in Volyn the number of relocated specialists is only about 500 people, then in Transcarpathia – more than 1150 people.
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The study showed that 88% of specialists work under a work contract (FOP). Under an employment contract – 14%, and another 1% indicated “Other” as a way of cooperation with the company. At the same time, 18% of FOPs plan to legalize abroad, and 4% plan to change the place of registration of FOPs.
It is known that 12% of IT specialists switched to a simplified tax payment system (that is, they pay 2% of the tax instead of 5%), and 19% simply did not know about this possibility. At the same time, 203,000 IT specialists allocate part of their personal budget to charity, which is 89% of the total number of IT specialists. 14% donate more than a quarter of family income.
41% of CEOs of IT companies plan to open new offices in the coming year, 26% said they would do it abroad. The most popular choice for a new location is Poland. It accounts for 20% of applicants. 4% each said they would choose Spain or the US, 3% each voted for Estonia and Portugal, and 2% each for Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia.
At the same time, there is a low level of interest in opening regional offices in Ukraine. 3% plan to open an office in Kyiv, the same number – in Lviv, 2% – in the Dnieper, Odessa and Chernivtsi. But in Transcarpathia, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk and Kamenetz-Podolsky, they do not plan to open offices at all.
There are three key factors that affect the future of Ukraine in general and IT in particular, says Valery Pekar, a Ukrainian entrepreneur, publicist and teacher at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School. This is war, Western support and economic freedom. These factors shape the three most likely scenarios for the future.
- Democratic modernization means that the war is over or frozen, the West is actively helping to recover, the state is heading for the liberalization of the economy, not interfering, it forms fair and transparent rules of the game. In this case, from 87% to 94% of Aitovites remain in Ukraine, 6% leave.
- Forced European integration is a scenario in which the war is over, Western partners give money to Ukraine, the economy is recovering, but there is strict government regulation, high taxes, minimal freedom, the state plays a big role in the economy. In such conditions, from 72% to 86% of IT specialists are ready to stay, 13% leave.
- Ukrainian authoritarianism can occur if wartime in the country is extended for the period of its restoration. This means the restriction of economic rights, freedoms, the work of the opposition, and so on. 43-62% of Aitovites said they would not leave Ukraine under such conditions, and 36% said they would leave.
At the same time, today 78% of IT company executives believe that, no matter what, the industry will grow. And absolutely no one believes that there is a scenario in which the IT industry will greatly lose ground.
Source:DOU
