In a tweet titled “My Christmas Wish List”, published on December 9, before the announcement of a new $1.85 billion military aid package from the United States, Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the head of the Office of the President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, collected the five most desired and necessary types of weapons, which can significantly help Ukraine. A fourth item, the Patriot air defense/anti-missile system, is already included in this aid package.

My Christmas wishlist:

1. Leopards
2. Marders
3. Abrams
4. Patriots
5. ATACMS

— Mykhailo Podolyak (@Podolyak_M) December 9, 2022

Washington Post columnists Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan, along with Berlin-based colleagues John Hudson and Loveday Morris, weigh in on whether Ukraine will receive weapons from the Podolyak list, how strong U.S. support for Ukraine is and how far it can go, and how America sees the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Let’s take a look at what they have to say about the items on the list in order, as well as some of the conclusions and comments of the experts in the article.

1. Leopards

WP journalists assess the provision of Leopard tanks as unlikely in the short term. Germany reiterated its reluctance to supply tanks until the United States did so first. At the same time, one of Germany’s priorities is to “support Ukraine as much as we can,” government official Stefan Hebestreit told reporters on Wednesday in Berlin. — The second priority is to keep NATO from a direct conflict with Russia. Thirdly, Germany will not leave [на поставки танков] alone The fact is that to date, not a single Western-made main battle tank has been delivered to Ukraine.”

We should add that, in addition to Germany, Leopard tanks of the current second generation are operated, produced and modernized by many European countries – it can be considered a “people’s” European tank. However, other countries look to Germany in this matter and will not supply tanks without approval. The delivery of Leopards looks more profitable for Ukraine compared to the American Abrams: they are easier to repair in Europe, transport and supply with fuel. On the other hand, Abrams tanks have already been purchased by Poland (perhaps to be less dependent on Germany, with which it has disagreements on many issues).

2. Marders

Observers hold the same opinion about the Marders BMP, although they were mentioned along with the Leopard without any separate analysis.

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We can only conclude that Germany’s attitude towards tanks also extends to modern infantry fighting vehicles – so far only light infantry mechanized models or Soviet BMPs have been supplied to Ukraine.

3. Abrams

According to the Washington Post, Ukraine has little chance of receiving Abrams tanks. According to the publication, representatives of the US Department of Defense said that Ukraine already has enough tanks, and that the American M1 Abrams are too difficult to maintain and difficult to operate.

It can be assumed that the priority of supplying European tanks to Ukraine is also understood in the USA, and they would like exactly this development of events in the future. However, as mentioned above, the matter rests on the position of Germany, which, in turn, looks at the USA and does not want to supply tanks first, forming a closed circle.

5. ATACMS

Ukrainian officials say the only way to stop a Russian air attack is to strike where it started.

“[Речь идет о] combined strikes against the enemy’s stationary objects, first of all against the airfields where the Russian strike aircraft are based, the areas of the launch positions of ballistic and cruise missiles,” said Mykhailo Zabrodskyi, Deputy Head of the National Security Service of Ukraine.

In an article for the Ukrinform state news agency, he noted that Ukraine needs long-range ATACMS missiles for this.

Responding to a question about missiles that would allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hit targets on Russian territory at a joint press conference with President of Ukraine Zelenskyi, who arrived in the United States on a visit, President Biden noted that such weapons could destroy NATO’s unity in support of Ukraine.

American journalists conclude that Zelensky’s failed attempt to get ATACMS in the short term.

Patriot Supply

New weapons systems delivered by the US and allies, including the modern Patriot air defense system, will help counter ongoing Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, which have left “much of the country in the dark and without heat as winter approaches” (WT’s words, we suggest independently assess their correspondence to reality). According to Ukrainian and US officials, the Patriot is designed to provide “multi-level” protection against Russian cruise and ballistic missiles.

“This is not a comprehensive air defense solution for Ukraine,” said one of the Pentagon representatives. “This is one more step out of many that we have taken. … With this one battery [Patriot] we will offer tremendous opportunities, but the United States and its allies will still work to strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses.”

A look at the development of events

In general, American officials and experts carefully evaluate the progress of negotiations on military assistance, the prospect of conflict escalation, the possibility of negotiations and the intentions of the aggressor.

“It was an opportunity for Biden and Zelensky to have a serious talk about where we’re going…without saying it [Зеленскому], what to do… to make sure that we are aligned on common goals and understand each other,” Ivo Daalder, former US ambassador to NATO and now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, described the negotiations. – Biden, as before, worries about not going too far too quickly, fearing escalation. Zelensky wants to make it clear that he needs this constant support, which, frankly, only the United States can provide.”

“The Russians want a cease-fire over time to update, regroup and train new forces,” Liana Fix, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Europe, said. “Russia is trying to buy time” after unsuccessfully resisting the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which made it possible to liberate a large part of the occupied territories.

As a conclusion, we can say that in the USA they understand everything, but they prefer to act extremely carefully and control the situation. As practice with other types of weapons, such as HIMARS systems, has already shown, US fears and non-provision of some types of weapons can be viewed with cautious optimism. It is regrettable that the delay in providing them prolongs the course of the war.