Vasyl Furman, a member of the NBU Council, noted that the cash rate may fluctuate insignificantly during the year.

The National Bank believes that the currency market is “accustomed” to mass shelling of Ukraine by the Russian army, and therefore does not show hesitation.

Vasyl Furman, a member of the NBU Council, said this on the air of an information telethon, noting that the course fixed by the National Bank is correct and plays an important role during the war.

“The foreign exchange market, like you and I, is used to attacks and does not react to them – and this is a plus. In general, the difference between the cash and non-cash markets is small and relatively stable in recent months,” he said.

At the same time, the cash rate may show slight fluctuations during the year.

“The National Bank does not give forecasts for the cash exchange rate, but we can see the forecasts of domestic or foreign financial organizations, which say that if the exchange rate fluctuates in one direction or another, it will not be significant compared to the current indicators,” he added.

The war in Ukraine and the dollar exchange rate:

As of May 21, the National Bank canceled restrictions on setting the exchange rate at which authorized institutions can sell cash foreign currency to clients. Previously, the relevant exchange rate should not have deviated from the official rate by more than 10%.

On July 21, the National Bank lowered the official exchange rate of the hryvnia by 25% to UAH 36.57/dollar.

In the draft state budget for next year, the Cabinet of Ministers predicted an average hryvnia exchange rate of UAH 42.2/dollar, and by the end of 2023, officials forecast it at the level of UAH 45.8/dollar.