According to Motyl, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will hold on to his power until the last second.
Oleksandr Motil, professor of political science at Rathgarh University in the USA, believes that Russia can no longer win the war waged against Ukraine. The result of the defeat of the occupiers may be the disintegration of the Russian Federation into parts, a civil war, or even a war between different parts of the aggressor state.
In an interview with TSN, Motyl said that even in February 2022, no one could have assumed that Russia could cease to exist at all. At that time, everyone was convinced that Russia would win this war, but no one imagined a Ukrainian victory.
“And over the past 11 months, we have seen that everything is just the opposite. Russia is no longer capable of winning. It will definitely not win. Ukraine can win. It is still an open question whether it will win. But at least there is hope and expectation that it will. Therefore, the vision of Russia has completely changed. And even more so, Ukraine. Russia has turned from a superpower, which is invincible, into a very “victorious” and no longer superhelp. It is no longer the second best and largest army in the world. This ratio has completely changed, as has the attitude of the West , politicians, scientists, analysts, etc. People are now thinking that Russia may lose,” Motyl noted.
The professor described several scenarios according to which events inside the Russian Federation may develop after the defeat in the war.
“Russia can split into parts, a civil war can happen, or a war in general between different parts of Russia. I am personally convinced that this is not only possible, but also very plausible. This is no longer just a fantasy that could come true under certain circumstances. it is becoming more and more real by the day,” he continued.
Instead, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, according to Motil, will hold on to his power until the last second.
“As we see and know from the war in Ukraine, he is ready for anything: to sacrifice the Russian people themselves in order to stay in power. And he is already doing this, by the way. So, there are various options here, which can be very unpleasant for everyone”. , not only for Russians, Ukrainians, but also for America and the whole world, so we need to think about it and somehow prepare, at least so that we are not taken by surprise, but perhaps we need to speed up this process. is another, more difficult issue, because then it means undermining Putin’s power itself,” he summarized.
The future of Russia: forecasts
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the VP, reported that the number of sabotages is increasing on the territory of Russia, and their number will increase in the future. In addition, he is sure that internal partisan and subversive movements will grow in the Russian Federation.
Russian opposition politician and journalist Oleksandr Ryklin believes that after the defeat of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, various options for the development of events are possible – among them the collapse of the Russian Federation, the overthrow of Putin, and the “freezing” of the situation within the Russian Federation itself. He emphasized that the main task of the world is to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has a nuclear button in his hands, and to transform the Russian Federation into a nuclear-free state.
