China’s population began shrinking in 2022 for the first time since the 1960s, signaling a deepening demographic crisis for the world’s second-largest economy.
By the end of last year 1.41 billion people lived in the country, which is 850,000 less than by the end of 2021, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday. It was the first drop since 1961, the last year of the Great Famine under former leader Mao Zedong, and coincided with figures showing China’s economy last year grew at its second slowest pace since the 1970s.
About 9.56 million babies were born in 2022, up from 10.62 million a year earlierwhich is the lowest rate since at least 1950, despite government efforts to encourage families to have more children.
In general 10.41 million people died, up slightly from the roughly 10 million recorded in recent years. China was hit by a spike in Covid deaths when it abruptly abandoned its “zero covid” policy in early December. Deaths are also expected to rise this year as the infection continues to spread across the country.
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The decrease in the number of newborns was the main reason for the population decline, according to Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics:
“This is largely the result of a decrease in people’s readiness to have children, delays in marriage and pregnancy, and a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age.”
Kahn said the drop — while the start of a new trend — “isn’t something to be overly concerned about.” The country’s labor supply still exceeds demand, he added.
However, population declines have occurred much faster than previously expected and could dampen economic growth due to reduced demand for, for example, new homes. Back in 2019, the United Nations predicted that China’s population would peak in 2031 and then decline, but last year that estimate was revised in favor of a decline in early 2022. The labor force is already shrinking in the long run. Demand for homes is likely to fall further, and the government may be dealing with problems paying for its underfunded national pension system.
The country is following in the footsteps of other East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, where birth rates have plummeted and populations are aging and shrinking. The number of newborns per 1,000 people in China dropped to 6.77 last yearwhich is the lowest level since at least 1978.
Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics show that 62% of the population are people of working age (for China, these are persons aged 16 to 59), compared to about 70% a decade agowhich highlights the challenges the country faces as its population ages.
Instead, the world’s global population reached a whopping 8 billion in November — more than tripling since the mid-20th century.
The world’s population has grown to 8 billion, and demographic pessimists are predicting mass starvation and ecological catastrophe – why you shouldn’t panic
China, despite the decline, will continue to be among the leaders, although by the end of 2023 it will cede the first place to India, which is projected to reach 1.67 billion people in 2050. Also, according to the calculations of the French Institute of Demographic Studies, the population of Nigeria will grow to 375 million by 2050 and will almost be comparable to the population of the United States (the country that currently ranks third in the population ranking).
World population by country and forecast of changes in the top 50 by 2050 — in one picture
Source: Bloomberg
