Currently, the Russian occupiers in Donbas are acting according to their usual tactics – they are trying to capture small areas of the territory in order to advance.

Military expert Oleg Zhdanov predicts that the peak of the enemy’s offensive operation and heavy fighting for Donbas may occur in March 2023, when Russia will transfer its main forces there and raise equipment and weapons.

“I would already consider that the Russian Federation has started an offensive like this gradually. This is repeating the same thing that happened in April of last year, when we expected the start of the epic battle for Donbas. Here its second phase is starting now. They have already started an offensive operation, they they are trying to press as hard as possible, they are constantly trying to increase their offensive efforts and will continue to increase them further. Just according to forecasts, the peak of these offensive efforts may occur in March, not earlier, when they will transfer and raise the main forces and especially raise equipment and weapons,” he said in an interview with TSN.

The expert suggested that in March, Putin will be able to appeal to 120,000 soldiers who were supposed to be released in the spring, but “they are unlikely to be allowed to go home.” In addition, there are another 120,000 personnel called up in the fall.

“They have already been in the units for 4-5 months, and these are considered trained servicemen. They will be forced to sign a contract and will be driven here to increase efforts. This is the wave that could be. replenishment of losses, or replenishment of some rear units. This is how it could look.” – predicts Zhdanov.

According to him, the Russian occupiers are currently operating in Donbas according to their usual tactics. The enemy is trying to capture small areas of territory in order to advance.

“What are they doing now and how can they explain their actions. They can’t do it any other way. They have resorted to their tactics, which they have been using since day one. They are trying to make encirclement, the so-called ticks, only on a small scale, and in this way” bite “a piece of territory at a time, trying to move forward. Otherwise they will not succeed and they cannot do otherwise,” he added.

At the same time, the expert noted that there is now a threat of encirclement of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut, Donetsk region.

“If they succeed in their breakthrough there a little south of Bakhmut, then we will be forced to withdraw in order not to be encircled. And it doesn’t matter where they go, they will again look for a weak point in our defense, break through it and try to surround it again some small area. And little by little, they will force us to leave with such semi-surroundings. This is the Russian Federation’s tactics,” Zhdanov emphasized.

How events will develop at the front: forecasts

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that the Russian authorities are preparing for the maximum escalation of the war against Ukraine. A new exacerbation may occur in the coming weeks.

At the same time, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, predicts that in 2023, Russia will focus on the full occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He also emphasized that Ukraine “must do everything so that Crimea returns home by the summer.”

Analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War concluded that the capture of Bakhmut by Russian troops is not inevitable, but the Armed Forces may retreat from the city to avoid unreasonably high losses.