To accumulate a potential resource of 200,000 mobilized, a period of 4 months is required, 500,000 – 10 months, the expert notes.

Russia cannot accumulate significant forces of 500,000 mobilized men in such a short period of time, as feared by Kremlin propagandists, military observer Oleksandr Kovalenko believes.

Kovalenko reminded that as part of preparations for the February 24, 2022 invasion, the Kremlin has been completely undisguisedly deploying 180,000 Russian Armed Forces to the borders of Ukraine since October 2021, deploying the deployment as early as the winter of 2021.

“A very appropriate question arises. Is it possible to deploy 200,000, 500,000 or a million forces and the corresponding funds completely inconspicuously near the borders with Ukraine? No. In addition, the mobilization potential of the Russian Federation is not capable of accumulating such numbers in a short time,” Kovalenko writes.

To accumulate a potential resource of 200 thousand, a period of 4 months is required, 500 thousand – 10 months. And this is ideal, the reviewer notes.

“In turn, the current rate of mobilization in the Russian Federation is much lower than the level of 100,000, and the highest rates were in October 2022. That is, mobilization continues, but not so actively and intensively as to exceed the need of 50,000 per month,” – Kovalenko notes.

At the same time, the observer agreed that Russia is preparing to attack: “All the more so because their fanatical desire to advance to Vugledar, to get out of the shackles in the Kreminnaya area, hints at a wide reach on the Donbas bridgehead.”

“This plan seems a bit schizophrenic, because without a sufficient amount of equipment, artillery, provision of BC units and artillery support, to carry out such an attack is suicide. But schizophrenics, indeed schizophrenics, not to be friends with common sense,” Kovalenko added.

And it is this activity that will become Russia’s biggest offensive, Kovalenko believes: “This offensive has every chance of being choked in the bud. Especially if the initiative is intercepted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a number of locations and fundamentally disrupts the Russians’ plans.”

Russia is preparing an offensive – what is known

According to Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, Russia may time a new large-scale offensive to the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine – February 24.

He added that, according to the ministry’s assessment, Russia now has more than 300,000 mobilized soldiers at its disposal.

Instead, the enemy conducts active reconnaissance in order to prepare for an offensive in the east of Ukraine.

The commander of the Lithuanian Armed Forces, Valdemaras Rupshis, believes that the Russian Federation is in a hurry to launch a new offensive in order to be in time for the start of the supply of Western equipment to the Ukrainian army.