Russian offensive: the expert made an important statement about the Russians’ plans to attack

The observer calculated how many BTGRs Russia needs for a successful offensive on the Zaporozhye bridgehead.

the material and technical support of the group in the Zaporozhye region is not at the highest level, noted Kovalenko / photo REUTERS

The Zaporizhia grouping of Russian troops is much weaker and more vulnerable than the Donetsk or Luhansk ones, and therefore any plans of the Russian Federation to attack in this direction can end in something much greater than just a fiasco.

Military and political commentator Oleksandr Kovalenko expressed confidence in this. In his opinion, for a successful full-scale offensive on the Zaporozhye bridgehead, the Russian occupiers need a resource that can be compared to at least 80 battalion tactical groups (BTGs), but today the Russian Federation has only about 30 BTGs concentrated there.

According to the expert, the situation is such that even the skeleton of the group is not doing well with the equipment and combat capability to conduct large-scale offensive operations:

“The backbone of the Zaporizhia group remains the 19th and 42nd MSD of the 58th OVA Air Defense Forces. At the same time, I cannot say that these units can boast of any phenomenal combat capability. For example, the units of the 19th MSD, namely the 429th and 503rd SME have approximately 50%-60% full-time equipment according to the BBM. The tank is part of the BTGr data and is a rare beast. A similar picture exists in the environment of the 42nd MSD, namely the 70th, 71st and 291st MSP. More or less with the equipment of the 78th MPSP “Akhma-Pivnich” and only for the reason that it does not particularly climb into the front.

Kovalenko added that the material and technical support of the group in the Zaporozhye region is not at the highest level, and in the event of an intensification of hostilities and a 3-4-fold increase in needs, it will generally decrease.

“Thus, the current grouping at the Zaporozhye bridgehead allows the Russian troops to primarily conduct a defensive type of action, and if we are talking about an offensive, then they cannot cover or push through a front of more than 100 km with their current number, current equipment and level of support.”, – confident expert.

The situation in Zaporozhye – the latest news

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on February 2, the districts of more than 15 settlements were shelled by Russian mortars, barrel and rocket artillery in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Among them are Olhivske, Malynyvka, Chervone, Gulyaipole of the Zaporizhzhia region.

It was reported that the Russian occupiers stopped social payments on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region. The Russians explain such a step as a lack of rubles. In particular, there are no payments in Melitopol, Berdyansk and Tokmak. At the same time, the occupiers are trying to stop the circulation of the hryvnia. As noted in the center, in the occupied territories, the Russians organize raids on trading points to prevent hryvnia purchases.

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