Recently, the occupiers are trying to attack both in the south and in the east of Ukraine.

Russian occupation forces may consider various options for a new offensive on Ukraine ahead of the February 24 anniversary of the full-scale invasion. Aggravation is observed in several directions.

The Telegraph writes that over the past few weeks, they have struck along the southern front in Zaporizhia Oblast, in the town of Vugledar in southeastern Donetsk Oblast, as well as along the wooded front line of Luhansk Oblast. No one knows yet what the main threat is.

It is noted that many people in Donbas predict the likely departure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a new line of defense, as was the case during the battles for Severodonetsk, Luhansk Region, in the summer of 2022. People are also leaving the town of Chasiv Yar for Donetsk region.

The article emphasizes that if Bakhmut is captured by enemy forces, it will be a heavy blow for Ukraine, but it will not necessarily cause a breakthrough for the occupiers. However, Bakhmut can turn out to be a diversionary maneuver.

The American Institute for the Study of War noted in a report on February 3 that Russia will direct the main offensive efforts of its troops in the Luhansk region – in the area of ​​Svatovo and Kreminnaya.

“These two key nodes are now in the hands of Russia, but since the fall they have been the target of the Ukrainian offensive. A strike here may be aimed at throwing the Ukrainians off balance in a less protected area,” the journalists write.

At the same time, a Ukrainian officer who is currently in Kharkiv believes that the occupiers may attack from the east, trying to regain control of the territory they lost during the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in September. The enemy could try to push Ukrainian troops away from the supply line between Valuyky in the Belgorod region and Svatovo.

In the future, the occupiers could cut the highway between Kharkiv and Izyum in order to deprive Ukrainian forces of supply routes to Donbas. However, the military officer noted that Russian troops do not have the strength to attack Kharkiv itself. He also expressed doubt that the enemy would resort to such an attempt. At the same time, he would not be surprised in the event of an enemy attack across the border in Sumy Oblast.

“There are many places they can go,” the officer added.

At the same time, an independent military researcher from Kyiv, Kyrylo Mykhaylov, believes that events in the south of Ukraine may develop in an unpredictable manner. He emphasized that the Russian occupiers do not have enough resources to carry out an offensive on all fronts. However, they have many mobilized to use to hold the front line and concentrate their most experienced forces for a dangerous offensive in one area.

At the same time, an attack on the southern front would threaten the main supply routes of Ukrainian forces in Donbas. However, in this case, the occupiers will need to cover a distance of 50-60 kilometers from the current front line to the Dnipro-Donetsk highway.

The new offensive of the Russian Federation on Ukraine: forecasts

Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that the Zaporozhye grouping of Russian troops is much weaker and more vulnerable than the Donetsk or Luhansk ones, and therefore any plans of the Russian Federation to attack in this direction may end in something much greater than just a fiasco.

Analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War suggest that the Kremlin may once again be overestimating the capabilities of the Russian army in the context of a new major offensive in Ukraine. ISW believes that the next discussion of the Russian Federation will most likely end prematurely.

At the same time, military expert Mykhailo Prytula said that for a new offensive, Russian troops can consider three directions: northern, southern and Donetsk. He added that the Russian Federation chose the tactics of attacking with manpower at the hot spots of the front, despite the colossal losses.