According to analysts, the team of the President of the Russian Federation was sure that the Russian troops would force Ukraine to capitulate.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is not ready to take the risky decisions that are necessary to achieve his goals regarding the occupation of Ukraine. This is evidenced by his steps, analysts emphasize in the ISW report.
According to experts, Putin probably proceeded from the mistaken assumption that his troops could force Ukraine to capitulate without significant military casualties. In this regard, he considered the Russian invasion as a limited and acceptable risk.
As it is added, the Russian special services were waiting for the collapse of the Ukrainian armed forces, and Kremlin propagandists published in advance a pre-written article about the “victory” of Russia on February 26, 2022. According to analysts, the Russian government’s economic moves show that Putin and his team mistakenly believed that the West would not incur serious costs because of his invasion.
The defeat during the offensive on Kyiv forced the Russian leadership to face difficult decisions. ISW notes that the president of the Russian Federation is reluctant to give orders for complex changes in the Russian armed forces and society, which are necessary to “save” his war.
The war in Ukraine: the latest news
It will be recalled that recently the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov stated that the Russian Federation may time its new offensive until February 24. In his opinion, they can advance in two directions – in Donbas or in the south. At the same time, the FT reports that the Ukrainian authorities have received information that Russia may launch a new offensive within 10 days.
ISW believes that the Kremlin is again overestimating the capabilities of its army, so the new offensive may end prematurely.
