As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensifies, the West watches from the sidelines, rooting for a Hollywood ending. That may happen yet. The Ukrainian underdog has put up spirited resistance against a retrograde Russian military machine and President Zelensky – immortalised by the epic phrase “I need ammunition, not a ride”– has become an icon of sovereignty and freedom. The free world has been shamed into matching his heroism, ramping up sanctions and sending weapons. Its action against Russia’s central bank may be a gamechanger, potentially draining Vladimir Putin’s war chest by two thirds.
Although Putin has insisted that Russia will never again see revolution, having reached its psychological “limit” for such “cataclysms”, a popular domestic revolt should not be discounted. As the economy goes into freefall, the country’s celebrities are slamming Putin’s war on Instagram. Other elite Russians – from banking tycoons to diplomats – have stuck their necks out, too, to denounce the invasion. Rumours have swirled about the wavering loyalty of members of Putin’s inner circle, including foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
Still, it may be Xi Jinping who emerges the unlikely anti-hero, compelled to finally twist the knife. Although both China and Russia are united in their hostility to the West, the CCP believes that time is on its side. It is committed to a different gameplan – steadily bending the rules of the liberal order until it breaks, rather than smashing it outright. Beijing has so far refused to openly help Russia to bypass economic sanctions comprehensively. As Putin’s actions become more unhinged and ruthless, Xi may well double-cross the Kremlin.
A Ukrainian victory would be a stunning triumph for freedom over tyranny, and show that there is life in Western values yet. Let us hope that it comes to pass. None the less, we ought to consider less positive scenarios.
The first is that Putin’s military operation in Ukraine is eventually successful, albeit at astonishing cost. The Kremlin has so far committed considerably less than the full range of forces at its disposal and, despite its evident deficiencies, the Russian military retains an overwhelming combat advantage. Yesterday, we also saw the first indications of what civilians can expect in the coming days: relentless artillery and missile strikes and devastating loss of life. If Putin grows more frustrated with his lack of a tactical breakthrough, he may decide to flatten Ukraine’s resistance as he did the Syrian rebels – including, some have speculated, via the use of chemical or small nuclear weapons.
A Russian victory would mark the dawn of a new world order. One in which the glory of empire rivals the sanctity of sovereignty, and sinister ideas of ethnic kinship threaten to usurp modern concepts of nationhood. Pandora’s box would be opened, emboldening China to make a bid for Taiwan and Turkey to formally take chunks out of Iraq and Cyprus. Africa faces balkanisation, as countries erupt into civil war. In an opinion column that has gone viral in China, the social media commentator Zhanhao chillingly asserts: “Many countries will disappear in the coming decades, the inevitable result of unprecedented changes this century… Now it’s alright. There is no medicine for regret. Times have changed.”
Such a world would not only be feverish with conflict and empire-building, but divided along new Cold War lines. At best, Ukraine would be “Finlandised”, accepting neutral status, like Helsinki during the Cold War, in return for semi-independence. At worst, it could be partially or wholly absorbed into a Greater Russia.
Russia and China would forge closer economic and geopolitical links. Xi has already eased trade restrictions and agreed to increase energy imports from Moscow. Both sides have discussed creating a financial infrastructure to rival Swift. Today, Beijing and Moscow’s mutual solidarity against the West remains largely rhetorical. It could metastasise into a malignant alliance, with the two sides joining forces, on everything from cyberwarfare to the AI arms race.
This would be a shock from which the Western world would struggle to recover. But there is an even more catastrophic scenario. One that, at present, remains extremely unlikely, but which cannot be dismissed as impossible either: a direct conflict between Russia and the West.
The Kremlin has already raised the temperature. Putin – who may not be of sound mind – not only put his nuclear forces on high alert at the weekend but has radically altered the rules of nuclear war over recent years, by rewriting Russia’s deterrence doctrine. This document asserts that a nuclear war is winnable for Russia, and lowered the bar for deploying atomic weapons, allowing them to be used against non-nuclear strikes.
Western politicians, meanwhile, too often treat statesmanship like a social media popularity contest with little thought to the strategic implications of their actions. It is one thing sending defensive armaments to Kyiv, in an attempt to stiffen the Ukrainians’ resolve. It is quite another promising to send fighter jets that might be deemed by Russia to have an offensive purpose, or constitute a declaration of proxy war – as the EU did at the weekend. There is thus the non-negligible risk war might erupt by accident.
We also underestimate at our peril the extent to which Ukraine may be a do-or-die issue for Putin. In the mind of Russia’s dictator, empire and survival are one and the same. Convinced that Moscow’s nuclear arsenal is the only thing that has prevented the West from attempting Iraq-style regime change, he is adamant that great power status is the only way that Russia can avoid domination by the West. By his gnarled logic, Ukraine is the key, for which he is willing to risk everything. A Russia without it is doomed to oblivion – diminished, encircled by enemies and slowly strangled by the kind of economic sanctions that the West does not dare level on China. If he thinks victory in Ukraine demands direct action against Kyiv’s allies, can we be sure that he wouldn’t take it?
Putin’s nihilistic fanaticism, in short, could alter the course of history not just for Ukraine but the world. The West must urgently respond with less romanticism and more realism.
