According to experts, the official exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine may rise to 40 hryvnias in 2023, but will not reach the mark of 45 hryvnias/dollar.

Until the end of 2022, the National Bank will not change the official exchange rate of 36.5 hryvnias per dollar. However, according to analysts’ forecasts, the hryvnia may weaken as early as next year.

As noted by the experts of the investment company ICU, the official exchange rate of the dollar in Ukraine in 2023 may increase to 40 hryvnias.

However, this forecast is more optimistic than the previous one, when it was expected that the weakening of the hryvnia would reach the mark of 45 hryvnias/dollar. According to experts, the improvement of the currency forecast also indicates the future slowdown of inflation in Ukraine.

“Our forecast of a slowdown in inflation is supported by two more arguments: the NBU will not be in a hurry to weaken the hryvnia exchange rate as much as we previously expected. By the end of 2023, the official exchange rate of the dollar will rise to approximately 40 hryvnias, although the rate of 45 hryvnias was previously expected,” the ICU macroeconomic review states .

According to the ICU, the NBU’s reserves will grow according to the 2023 forecast. They are expected to increase to more than $35 billion. This will be facilitated by the arrival of international financial aid.

“In general, the Ukrainian economy will remain vulnerable. But it is quite viable and in a much better condition than could be expected at the beginning of a full-scale war with the Russian Federation,” analysts emphasize.

Exchange rate in Ukraine: forecast

As of May 21, the National Bank canceled restrictions on setting the exchange rate at which authorized institutions can sell cash foreign currency to clients. Previously, the relevant exchange rate should not have deviated from the official rate by more than 10%.

Before the full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine, the exchange rate of the hryvnia was floating. The regulator can return to a floating exchange rate, provided the foreign exchange market is balanced.

On July 21, the National Bank of Ukraine weakened the official exchange rate of the hryvnia by 25% to UAH 36.57/dollar.

In the draft state budget for next year, the Cabinet of Ministers predicted the average exchange rate of the hryvnia at the level of more than UAH 42/dollar.

As wrote, earlier due to the war in Ukraine and the difficult economic situation, experts voiced several factors that will become important in the formation of the exchange rate by the end of 2022. Experts predict that the hryvnia exchange rate in Ukraine should not change much until the new year, and there are several reasons for this.