Hey.

Just the other day, Xiaomi showed a scattering of their new products, one of which was a smartphone with a flexible screen. Interestingly, in all Xiaomi communications, this product is called the company’s first smartphone with a flexible screen, as if in 2019 the company did not show a prototype that folded several times, and did not promise to release it very soon.

Both then and now I think that such products have no particular prospects on the market, any flexible screen with more than one fold looks exotic. In the end, this is not origami, but a product that needs to be used in everyday life, which means it should be simple and straightforward.

The first flexible screens from Samsung Display appeared back in 2010, then they wandered to different secret rooms at exhibitions, where prototypes of devices were shown to the company’s partners. Several times I was able to look at these wonders with one eye, the variety of form factors was amazing – from screens that rolled into a tube to displays that assembled into an accordion. Engineers competed in how to fold the screen so that it was compact while still providing the largest diagonal when unfolded. After trying hundreds of different ideas, Samsung left exactly one for commercial devices – a flexible screen with a fold in the middle. It can be vertical, like in the Z Flip, when the screen is stretched in one plane, and then the smartphone is close to a square when folded. Or the smartphone itself can be a rectangle, but then in the open state it is closer to a square.

The simplicity of such forms is self-evident, the fewer the number of folds, the more reliable the design. It is necessary to avoid unnecessary complexity, adding unnecessary mechanics that create potential flaws in the reliability of the design. For example, I’ve seen prototypes of the Fold, in which the deployment can be carried out using motors. Press the button and the device opens. The problem is that ergonomics suffers from this, you can drop the device, since you do not always control the movement itself, you cannot accurately predict it at first. In case of a fall, the probability that the motors will be damaged (it is enough to damage one of them) differs from zero. In a word, a complication, excellent for exhibitions, but completely unnecessary for life.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to release a smartphone with a flexible screen without having sufficient R&D potential for this, you simply will not have enough experience. And this is not a question of creating a prototype, there are no problems as such, it is enough to get flexible screens and create your own form factor, and it can be anything. The question is just how to make such models able to withstand the conditions of real operation, the snag is this. And the lack of a large number of models with a flexible screen in 2019-2020 rests on several reasons. The first is the unavailability of flexible screens, there are only a few manufacturers of such matrices in the world, they are very expensive. Only Samsung has mass production of matrices, other companies have not mastered it, and the cost of their displays is exorbitant, while the characteristics are worse. But the most important characteristic that is important for the manufacturer is the MTBF, how many folds the display can withstand. Here Samsung has a handicap of several years or more. Miracles do not happen; to release a mature product, it is necessary to invest both the money and the time of the engineers.

When Samsung released the first Fold, all competitors rushed to explore this niche, creating their products in opposition to Samsung, to show that they can do something differently. And it was a PR approach, but not for creating real products.

For example, Huawei Mate X had a screen turned outward, that is, when closed, the display was always in contact with surrounding objects, which increased the possibility of accidentally damaging it. What was the logic of the engineers? The answer lies on the surface – they created the model so that it was conspicuous, it had a large screen, but they did not think about real use in life. I sincerely tried to use the Mate X, but returned to the first Fold, the ergonomics of these models were as different as heaven and earth. Huawei didn’t think about how people would use this product, they needed to show themselves off.

The period of products for exhibitions stretched for a couple of years, and in 2021 the companies realized a simple thing that the form factor chosen by Samsung was the most optimal. Not everyone has done this, for example, Oppo is still exploring the form factor of a flexible roll-up screen. But this is exactly the same exhibition sample, it should make an impression, but no one is going to sell it, as there are questions about reliability and usability. But something new, something that regulars love to discuss on online forums. This is what the Oppo X looks like.

In 2021, all of Samsung’s competitors publicly admitted the fallacy of previous searches for a flexible screen form factor, made public statements about it. Since developing proprietary technologies is very expensive, the Galaxy Fold, the second generation of this smartphone, was taken as a reference. And we see the attack of the clones, which look and feel exactly the same.

Attack of the Clones Galaxy Z Fold2 – brothers not by blood

Let’s take a look at the Galaxy Z Fold2 to refresh its look, especially since many people don’t remember it. The device looks like this when folded.

Let’s take a look at Huawei’s second flexible screen, the Mate X2.

The familiar form factor, the external similarity with the Fold2 is striking, that is, the smartphone from Huawei mimics a successful brother. Samsung currently holds a paltry 99% of the world’s flexible smartphone market, and remains fairly small by any measure. In the Fold form factor, the company set the standard that all other companies now follow.

Let’s take a look at the Xiaomi Mi MIX FOLD, which is also a shining representative of the Galaxy Fold clones.

Perhaps this shot will add more sense of similarity.

The copying of the design from Samsung is almost total, the same form factor is used, even the presentation itself is simply taken as a basis, in Xiaomi they tell exactly the same things, they focus on the form factor, the folding mechanism.

Of course, the aesthetics of the devices are different in the details, each manufacturer designs the camera unit in its own way so that it resembles other models in the line. But both Huawei and Xiaomi are careful about releasing these models outside of the Chinese market (although perhaps Xiaomi will try to do so). The reason is in the very “legacy” of the Galaxy Fold, which was taken by the companies, it remains unclear for them how Samsung will react, whether they will make reciprocal steps in the legal plane. In the absence of at least some sales in China, Samsung has no point of vulnerability and can safely use lawyers and its patents to stop the sale of such models in other markets. But my opinion is that the company will not do this, it makes no sense, the competitors are too small and insignificant, and they do not offer anything new.

Let’s look at the cost of these devices in China (since Huawei, Xiaomi are represented only there, you need to compare in this market).

• The Xiaomi Mi MIX Fold (12/256 GB) is priced at 9 yuan.
• The price of Huawei Mate X2 (8/256 GB) is 17 yuan.
• The Galaxy Z Fold2 (12 / 256GB) is priced at 16 yuan.

Pay attention to the cost of Xiaomi, their model is clearly more affordable than that of competitors, and the price is noticeably lower. There are no miracles in the world, and even sacrificing margin and selling such a device to zero, you will not achieve such a value. This means that we again see the history of subsidizing the model, when sales will be limited to small runs. This is a kind of PR for Xiaomi to show that they can sell cheaper than everyone else and offer about the same or even better product. There is no need to talk about the mass market and noticeable sales, since the price clearly falls out of the capabilities of both Xiaomi and the market. Even Samsung has a noticeably lower percentage of profits on the Galaxy Fold than on other devices, the reason is in the service, in the money that is pledged for device failures (they are simply changed in most situations so as not to create negativity – but this is the company’s goodwill for development segment of flexible smartphones). Usually, the death of a flexible screen occurs from blows, the most common reason is the fall of the open screen onto the corner of furniture. How this is possible, I don’t know, but it happens to people, there is a suspicion that they are throwing their devices at someone out of emotion, and then they want to have them repaired within the framework of VIP insurance (different countries have different conditions for it). But the failure rate of the same Folds is negligible, the devices are reliable, and the opening mechanism, like the screen, always works, in any conditions. Although I know that several people after the sauna had their devices turned off, as they had a lot of steam.

Why are other companies following Samsung making clones of the Galaxy Fold? The answer is obvious, this is the main device in this segment, copying its aesthetics and form factor, which saves money on development. In six months the third generation Fold will be released (fingers crossed so that the deficit of components does not affect it, I think there will be no problem with this for a device of this class). And it will also be copied, since companies have embarked on this path and will not turn away from it, for them it is a race for the leader and savings on development. It’s easier to disassemble someone else’s product and recreate it in your own reading than to develop something of your own from scratch. And the market has long been living by copying, there is nothing wrong with that, it is a common practice. It is just curious to admit that all experiments with form factors are from the crafty and now we live in the era of copying Fold. How long will it last? I think that at least until 2023, when Apple will give its reading of this form factor, purchasing screens from Samsung and, apparently, copying the same form factor. As far as I know, Apple is trying to get patents for a flexible smartphone with exactly the same approach as the Galaxy Fold, because inventing something of your own is hard, it’s easier to save money and copy what others have done before you.

As a fan of smartphones with flexible screens, I can only rejoice that different companies are shaking this market, more and more people are using such devices. And they are great. I think I’ll try to describe my experience with the Galaxy Z Fold2 six months later with a ponytail, the device makes me happy every day and has become the main device, without it like no hands. Work, play – all in one device. And it’s a little pleasant that other manufacturers are trying to copy the device that you have been using for a long time.

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