Prof Ferguson said the Government had taken a decision to live with Covid rather than trying to wipe it out and, as long as the health service was not overwhelmed, high case numbers would be unlikely to cause alarm.

On Tuesday, the Government reported 33,869 new cases – a drop of 2.3 per cent in the last week. Many recent cases have been in children and are not translating into a rise in hospital admissions.

Prof Ferguson said the ratio of cases translating to admissions was now around one in 50 and, among those, fewer were needing intensive care or dying. Deaths have fallen by 15.5 per cent in a week, with 166 reported on Tuesday.

“I personally think it’s unlikely we will see a very large wave comparable to the second wave but we could see quite substantial rates of transmission, which stress NHS capacity,” Prof Ferguson said.

“It is possible, and the modelling suggests we could see continued flat incidence, even decline, so it’s not guaranteed we will see a large winter surge – but we can’t afford to have too much of a winter surge before the NHS is very heavily stressed.”

But he said the pandemic was entering a phase in which it was difficult to predict what would happen next, adding: “The key uncertainties are what will happen with population immunity, what will happen with contact rates, seasonality and transmission.

“I personally think we will see seasonal surges of Covid which will challenge the health system. Whether we will need to rely on some kind of mitigation beyond vaccination remains to be seen.”

Other experts have warned that high case numbers are still a problem because of long Covid.

Martin McKee, professor of European public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “There is a great deal of concern among the high levels of transmission in schools. There is a sense that people do not want to talk about long Covid.”