Supply chain crisis ‘costs UK and eurozone one year of growth’

In countries where car production is a major industry, the hit to manufacturing has been larger. Manufacturing output was estimated to be down more than 10pc in Germany due to the problems, pulling its 2021 GDP almost 3pc lower.

Ms Georgieva said prolonged supply disruption “raises challenges for monetary policymakers” as they are stuck between needing to stamp out inflation and helping economies get back on their pre-Covid paths.

She said: “Keeping medium-term inflation expectations stable despite transient boosts to inflation, including from supply disruptions and surging energy prices, is key to managing this trade-off.” 

Targeted fiscal measures could alleviate supply bottlenecks and reduce the risk of central banks needing to aggressively tackle inflation, Ms Georgieva added.

With inflation reaching multi-decade highs across the world, central banks are moving to curb price rises by tightening policy. The Bank of England has increased interest rates twice in three months and markets expect at least five more hikes this year, taking its base rate from 0.5pc currently to 1.75pc.

City economists are split on how quickly supply chain disruption will ease, helping to cool inflationary pressures. Analysts at Citi have warned not to expect any improvement in supply problems until later this year or even 2023.

Meanwhile Morgan Stanley expects that “supply chain disruptions clear through 2022” in the UK, allowing core goods inflation to decline from 4.7pc this year to 0.4pc in 2023.

Its economist Bruna Skarica added: “We are seeing clear signs of this materalising already, with our supply chain disruptions tracker edging lower in recent months.”

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