Another long-standing price index shows even higher inflation – so, again, is severely downplayed in official data releases.
RPIX – retail price index excluding mortgage interest – is a good indication of underlying inflation, avoiding the anomaly of rate rises implemented to tackle price pressures themselves adding to the headline inflation rate.
RPIX – used as the Bank of England’s target rate until 2003 – hit 8pc in January, a much scarier number than the 5.5pc CPI measure.
The reality is that, for many less well-off families, spending a high share of their income on heating and transport, official inflation measures suggesting their cost of living has risen by only 5pc or so over the last year are a bad joke. For millions of poor (and not so poor) households, the inflation they’re experiencing is already well into double digits.
UK wages grew by 4.3pc during the final three months of 2021, while CPI inflation averaged 4.9pc between October and December – pointing to a fall in living standards. Underlying wage growth, excluding bonuses, was actually 3.7pc – way less than the CPI, which in my view is, for many, a significant under-estimate.
Remember, too, this is the growth in average total pay, a figure skewed upward by those earning serious money. A huge chunk of the workforce – millions and millions of workers, many of them providing for multiple dependents – have secured no wage rise whatsoever as the cost of living has surged.
In real terms, then, post-inflation real wages fell sharply during the final quarter of 2021 – and there’s a lot more to come. The Bank of England has warned that, as inflation keeps rising, “peaking at around 7pc this spring”, living standards will also fall during 2022 as a whole.
For months, the Bank was in denial about inflation – arguing that price rises would be “transitory”. On that logic, the Monetary Policy Committee could put off raising interest rates, so the massive stock-market-bond-market bubble blown by central banks over recent years could keep inflating – ensuring the well-connected political and moneyed classes remained happy.
Such complacency has now gone. Having raised rates from 0.1pc to 0.5pc in successive steps in December and January, the Bank will now likely raise interest rates – to 0.75pc – in March.
And with consumer goods giants like Unilever, Nestle and Reckitt now openly raising prices, as they battle “unprecedented” supply chain and input price pressures, CPI inflation could easily exceed the Bank’s estimated peak. The consultancy Capital Economics points to a high of 7.9pc in April, after which base effects could stop headline inflation going higher.
But, again, inflation may not peak in April. This on-again, off-again Russia-Ukraine conflict is playing havoc with global energy prices, with Brent crude last week exceeding £100 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Ongoing shortages of vital components – everything from steel to semiconductors – could well keep input prices high.
And never underestimate the ability of unscrupulous retailers to use an inflationary environment to jack up prices even more, not least across sectors dominated by big players lacking genuine competition – of which there are far too many in the UK – or facing an otherwise captive audience.
Unleaded petrol prices averaged around £1.47 a litre last week – a new record. Some retailers, though, are charging far more. Industry estimates suggest motorway service stations pushed prices to an average of £1.66 a litre – no doubt cashing in on half-term getaway traffic. At that rate, filling a bog-standard family saloon now costs over £90.