As Russian tanks roll into Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s regime in Beijing is watching closely to see what the West does. 

The Chinese Communist Party regime has always had the goal of “reuniting” Taiwan with mainland China, and Xi Jinping has made it particularly clear that he regards achieving this objective as a key part of his own legacy. Threats to Taiwan have intensified in recent years, not only with increasingly bellicose rhetoric but with heightened economic and diplomatic coercion and some serious military provocation. Last October China flew a record 150 aircraft into Taiwan’s air defence zone, including 34 J-16 fighters and 12 nuclear-capable H-6 bombers. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last August, Chinese state media published several articles taunting Taiwan. “After the fall of the Kabul regime, the Taiwan authorities must be trembling,” tweeted Hu Xijin, the editor of China’s state-controlled Global Times.

Beijing has told Taiwan that it is safe from invasion, but if Kyiv falls, and the free world’s response is lacklustre, the cause for concern in Taiwan will undoubtedly grow. That is why we must act now to deter Beijing. For while Putin’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to plunge Europe into its worst crisis in decades, a military invasion of Taiwan by China would cause an even more severe global crisis. 

Taiwan is one of Asia’s most dynamic and successful liberal democracies and as such, its annexation by Beijing would represent a direct attack on the free world. It is also one of the world’s major economies, the United States’ tenth largest trading partner and Britain’s eighth largest Asia-Pacific trading partner. It is, as Ian Easton, author of The Chinese Invasion Threat, told me this week, an “engine of the world economy”, especially as the world’s largest producer of semiconductors, which form the microchips that power most electronic devises from smartphones to computers. “If that capacity fell into the hands of the Chinese regime, that threatens our freedoms at home,” Mr Easton said.

So what should we do? The most important step is to signal to Beijing that we will not stand by in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. We should step up engagement with Taiwan now, to show we mean business. That includes high-level political, diplomatic and military visits to the island, to signal our solidarity and enhance our understanding of the situation. We should increase provision of arms, equipment and expertise to Taiwan, ensuring critical supplies are prepositioned. And we should promote Taiwan’s attendance at key multilateral organisations – or establish new ones that include Taiwan. Short of full diplomatic recognition – which would be unnecessarily provocative – we should do everything possible to signal to Beijing that Taiwan matters.

Crucially, we must get more serious in the sanctions we impose on Russia in response to the invasion of Ukraine, and carry out a full assessment of what sanctions could be meaningfully applied to China if it seizes Taiwan. Sanctions on China are more likely to cause pain at home, given how integrated China is with the global economy, so a contingency plan should be developed to cope with the economic repercussions we may face. But we should be clear to Beijing what the costs of any invasion would be for them. We should conduct an audit of the assets of Chinese princelings in the West, and be ready to seize them at a moment’s notice. 

We need to wake up to the truth that authoritarianism is on the march – and it does not stop in Kyiv. While the invasion of Ukraine was one of Europe’s darkest days in recent times, an attack on Taiwan would be even more catastrophic. Xi Jinping, like Putin, will not hesitate to seize the opportunity to pursue his expansionist objectives if he senses weakness on the part of the free world. If we value freedom and democracy, we must be prepared to defend them wherever they are threatened. 

Benedict Rogers is co-founder and Chief Executive of Hong Kong Watch, deputy chair of the Conservative Party Human Rights Commission and an advisor to the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC).