Britain needs to stop focusing on China and build up its land forces

With a violent, bloody and destructive return to state-on-state warfare in Europe, this must surely be the moment for the United Kingdom’s defence planners to take a fresh look at the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy published in March last year.

Entitled: “Global Britain in a Competitive Age,” the study set out to be the “biggest review of…policy since the end of the Cold War and inter alia posited a pivot towards the Indo-China and East Asia region.

To the pandemic locked-down officials in Whitehall in 2020, this might have seemed a reasonable policy proposal, but it has taken Vladimir Putin just a few days to spin that pivot on its head.

“Global Britain” might have sounded attractive in the immediate post-Brexit days but the harsh reality of the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine has dragged the United Kingdom back to focus on what really matters – security in Europe and the primacy of our membership of Nato.

Talk of the dangers of a resurgent Russia has echoed around the corridors of Whitehall for more than a decade as Putin tightened his grip on the levers of power in the Kremlin.

However, the talk remained just talk while the ambitions of a maritime-led defence policy diverted our eyes towards East Asia and became the dictator of a shift in our defence spending.

Russian armoured columns bearing down on Kyiv are concentrating more minds now than just those in defensive positions along the Dnieper River. Whether there should be a re-balancing of our defence spending priorities is a question that cannot be dodged but for today the priority must be our unqualified support to the people of Ukraine.

Against one of the most powerful armies in the world, the people of Ukraine, whether in uniform or not, deserve our huge admiration and encouragement as they face the enormity of an attack on their territorial integrity and chosen way of life.

This fledgling democracy must eventually triumph over the deranged autocracy of Putin. Moreover, our admiration should extend to the brave Russian citizens who have the moral courage to go out onto their streets to demonstrate against a war which they disown.

If Putin’s objective is to effect regime change in Kyiv to bring Ukraine into the wider family of Russian influence, then we ought to be supporting those who wish to see regime change in the Kremlin in order to bring Russia back into the family of civilised nations.

Although we have supplied lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine backed by training teams and financial support in recent years, the harsh reality remains that Ukraine is not a Nato member and British troops will not be joining their fight for freedom.

For the same reason, policing a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace would inevitably bring Nato aircraft into contact with Russian aircraft, at a stroke transforming a limited conflict into a major war. Our response instead must be unified, intense and sustained.

Strength in unity

Our weapons must be the continued unity of the West, the imposition of the deepest and widest economic sanctions and the maximum isolation of Russia from all dimensions of the international community, including diplomatic, sporting and cultural.

These weapons will not necessarily have immediate effect, but their strength will grow over the medium to long term. The West will have to demonstrate a strategic patience to which it is largely unaccustomed.

However, while the tragedy of Ukraine reaches its denouement, United Kingdom defence planners should turn again to consider their priorities and accept that we have run down our land warfare capability to the point that our deterrent deployments on the borders of our East European and Baltic state Nato friends lack the depth and sustainability required.

The aspiration to field an armoured division in any future conflict is not achievable within existing defence spending plans. We would struggle today to field even a brigade of five thousand troops at high readiness to fight.

The decision to phase out the tracked Warrior infantry fighting vehicles and replace them with a wheeled alternative immediately makes nonsense of the decision to upgrade our Challenger tanks.

If the infantry cannot manoeuvre on a battlefield at the same speed as our armour, the tanks risk being isolated and destroyed in detail.

Moreover, a major uplift in our gun and rocket artillery is required as is our air defence capability.

This is unwelcome news in the Treasury, but the reality of what is happening in Europe today cannot be ignored.

In approaching international relations, Theodore Roosevelt talked about carrying a big stick and speaking softly. Currently we are talking loudly, but where is our big stick?

General The Lord Dannatt is a former Chief of the General Staff and author of: “Boots on the Ground – Britain and her Army since 1945

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