The entry of Belarus into the war “in the worst case will force Ukraine to temporarily divert its forces”, according to analysts.

Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine. Even if this happens, the Belarusian army will not be able to achieve significant operational success, according to analysts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In a new daily report, analysts note that an invasion of Ukraine could weaken the regime of the country’s unrecognized president, Oleksandr Lukashenka.

“Lukashenko relied on units of the Belarusian armed forces in addition to the Belarusian security services to quell protests against his rule in 2020 and 2021. Directing much of this security apparatus to the war in Ukraine is likely to leave Lukashenko open to new unrest and resistance. Lukashenko is also likely aware that an invasion of Ukraine would undermine his authority as a leader of a sovereign country, as it is clear that Russia’s efforts to establish full control over Belarus have been successful,” the report said.

American analysts also emphasize that the entry of Belarus into the war “in the worst case will force Ukraine to temporarily divert forces and equipment from the current front lines.”

“Even if Lukashenko sends a much larger (than previously predicted – ) number of his forces to the offensive against Ukraine, the Belarusian armed forces will still remain a small force that will not be able to achieve significant operational success,” ISW emphasizes.

It also predicts that Belarus will continue to help Russia wage war against Ukraine, even though Lukashenko is unlikely to send his army to participate in hostilities. It is about the transfer of materials that are not available to the Russian Federation due to sanctions, the subsequent provision of territory and airspace for use by the Russian army.

The threat of an army invasion of Belarus

On October 10, the unrecognized president Oleksandr Lukashenko announced the deployment of a joint group of troops of Belarus and the Russian Federation. Subsequently, in October, Russian conscripts were brought to Belarusian territory.

Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine, Oleksiy Gromov, said on November 24 that 15,000 Belarusian servicemen, in addition to 9,000 Russian servicemen stationed in Belarus, could theoretically participate in the war with Ukraine.

At the beginning of December, according to reports from the General Staff, the number of mobilized Russian military personnel increased in the cities of Mozyr, Gomel and Mogilev. Meanwhile, state-owned enterprises in Belarus are collecting funds for the needs of the Russian army.

According to Western analysts, Belarus is currently engaged in distracting Ukrainian forces from concentrating on hot areas of the front. However, the Armed Forces are preparing in case of an invasion by the Belarusian army.

According to Kyryll Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, there will be no attack on Ukraine by Belarus. He believes that information about the attack is being spread to create panic.