In an interview with , Russian journalist and blogger Michael Naki talked about the real reason for canceling Vladimir Putin’s press conference, nuclear blackmail and the mood of the Kremlin elites.

Everyone is talking about the fact that Putin has fallen silent. His traditional conference will not take place, there will not be all these messages, New Year’s speeches. Why is this happening?

All these almost 10 months, there has been an active discussion of what is happening in Russia, how Russians perceive this war, whether they can protest, whether they can capture the Kremlin, how Putin’s entourage perceives it, and so on. At the same time, many public figures and politicians go through different stages in this regard. At the beginning of the war, for example, Volodymyr Zelenskyi counted on the support of the Russians. I understand why that was. You, Volodymyr Zelenskyi and all Ukrainians live in a completely different country, where there is a civil society, where there are elections, and there is media. People tend to extrapolate their way of life to someone else’s. From the very beginning, the protests were indeed quite large. In the first week, 8,000 people were arrested. But then emergency laws were introduced, according to which you could be imprisoned for using the word “war”. Not to mention a separate law for “discrediting the Russian army”, i.e. simply for telling what is happening. You spoke for Bucha, for example, as Ilya Yashin, and for that you got 9 years in prison. I have such an article hanging on me right now, but I’m having trouble reaching it. Why am I telling all this? Reasoning was built on various perceptions and emotions, as well as on quite specific information. For example, they like to conduct polls in Russia, where 80%, 90%, 100% or 150% of Russians “support” the war. Such surveys are not a very reliable source of information. Aggressive reaction to protests and new laws, to put it mildly, demotivates you to answer the survey honestly. They tell you: “Do you support the war or do you have some other position that is criminally punishable in the Russian Federation?” There is a high probability that people will not answer completely sincerely.

Here we see the dynamics over the numbers, and the change, where the support for the war is decreasing. We cannot find out how Russians really feel about war, but we can look at those for whom it is incredibly important and what decisions they make. Vladimir Putin and his political entourage are people to whom the Russian position on this war is very important. And they cancel the main favorite thing of Vladimir Putin – the press conference. Putin loves her very much, he is trying to build the image of a national favorite, to create a cult of personality. At these press conferences, he gets high, he likes how the Lord God says: “Here, put the gas here. I’ve been ruling for 20 years, but for some reason the gas hasn’t been put here. Let’s do it!” His press conference consists of this. This is such a big lottery where Russians can win New Year’s gifts. And if Vladimir Putin canceled this beloved brainchild, it means that he and his inner Kremlin circle believe that the risks are very high. They believe that the conversation that could take place at the press conference would be harmful to her. You can, of course, filter everything so that there is no “hot” question, but people will be dissatisfied. This means that the Kremlin is paying attention to the mood inside Russia, and they also see that things have deteriorated a lot. The situation is such that Putin’s meeting with the people will play into the negative. This is 100% confirmation that the mood inside Russia is definitely at the stage where Putin himself believes that the perception of the war is very negative, especially against the backdrop of Russia’s failures.

In the Moscow Times article, it is separately noted that the last straw or the last nail in the coffin lid in the context of the press conference were the strikes on Russian airfields – on Engels and near Ryazan. This really scared people in the Kremlin. The blows remained unanswered, because it is not very clear what to answer to it. Somehow, this is how I perceive this story with the cancellation of the conference.

Russian elites can remove Putin

Does Putin know what information to give today to his elites, whom he is probably already very afraid of?

First, we see that he also emphasized the message to the federal assembly, which is perceived as a road map for the elites. Putin’s problem isn’t even that he doesn’t know what to say. Putin’s problem is that his every word, or even his absence in the public space, emphasizes all the costs Russia has suffered as a result of this war and the lack of any gains. You can tighten your belts if you are promised that you are a great empire that will destroy everyone. It’s hard for me to understand people who like all this, but obviously there are some people like that out there. But you can’t promise people: “You will have to tighten your belts, and at the same time we will all lose, we will all be publicly humiliated, we will be rejected, we will be recognized as terrorists”. This is a global problem that Russia can solve in only two ways. The first way is to suddenly start winning in some incredible way, capture everything and be successful. It’s unlikely, because if they could, they would. The second way is to get rid of Vladimir Putin. This path suits both the elites and the Russians, because Putin is strongly associated with this war. All parties to this war, including the European Union, Olaf Scholz, Volodymyr Zelensky, say they are ready to interact with any person who will be in Russia, but not with Vladimir Putin.

The only way out for Russia and the elites is either the physical removal of Vladimir Putin or his capture.

The same elites you asked about cannot fail to understand this. No doubt they discuss it among themselves. And the more defeats Vladimir Putin has, the more these conversations occur within the Kremlin environment.

Putin still believes in his victory

Does it already remind you of Hitler in 1945, who did not come out of the bunker for several weeks before his defeat?

Unfortunately, it is still too early. I do not think that Vladimir Putin will have enough will, honor and courage to shoot himself. He still believes that he can succeed. He still believes that he will be able to either sell Ukraine, or sell Europe, or jump out of this hopeless situation. A part of his entourage believes this, so they continue to act as they did. Yes, it works less and less every day. It’s a mixture of poker and chess, where everyone plays for the lead. The task of Vladimir Putin is to show that it is better with him than without him.

Now the moment has come when Russia cannot significantly change the situation on the front line. Therefore, the only thing that Vladimir Putin is doing is prolonging the conflict. All people in the world are interested in one thing – to end this war as soon as possible. Russia cannot win it, and does not want to finish it. Therefore, the question of Putin, his existence and the continuation of this war are now the most urgent for the whole world. Every day not only brings the death of Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland, they also bring costs to all other participants in the global world process.

Does this mean that some shady deals are going on?

I don’t see it as a trade yet, but I see it as some consolidation of the world under the unequivocal recognition of the anti-trades. We have seen a large number of attempts to somehow fix the negotiation process, to teach someone. Macron called, Scholz called.

But in the last months of this war, Russia is making itself impossible for any interaction because it openly uses terrorist methods.

Consolidation is taking place around the idea that there is no consensus, no neutral solution, no “both yours and ours”. Here there is either a victory for Ukraine or a victory for Russia. Because a Russian victory is, firstly, a red rag for Vladimir Putin to continue his expansion and try to take over other European countries, and secondly, a red rag for other dictators who sit and wait. For example, for Xi Jinping, who is watching the reaction of the international community and how expensive it will be for them if they want to do something similar with other countries.

At the end of the year, everyone likes to take stock and draw some conclusions. In many analytical organizations, they sit around the table and say: “Let’s see what kind of situation we have now and how we can get out of it.” For many, it becomes obvious that there is no way out except for the victory of Ukraine. Therefore, there is a change in the narrative from “save Putin’s face” to “kicking out the Security Council and other structures with sasanian rags.” I hope it comes as soon as possible, because the sooner Putin sees that the world is no longer in the middle, the sooner the war will end.

When Vladimir Putin sees a force that surpasses him by orders of magnitude, he retreats. For now, he is fighting with Ukraine, and despite the fact that Ukraine’s forces are objectively superior to Putin’s, he is not ready to admit this to himself. If to this is added even more active participation of the countries of the international community, then the chances of this ending as soon as possible will be increased.

Putin trades in fear

Statements were made in the international press that Ukraine must make a choice between Crimea and nuclear war. Do you think the West agrees to the liberation of Crimea by Ukraine? Will the support end there?

The whole story of offensive weapons and defensive weapons is some journalistic fiction, because weapons become defensive or offensive depending on how they are used. The West helps Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, but it can use the same means to go on the offensive, including in Crimea. If Ukraine pushes back Russia, then it has the opportunity to advance further. If not, then more support is needed. The West has no valves to regulate, and even more so they cannot do it publicly, because the West does not recognize that Crimea is Russia. The West has repeatedly said that it is Ukraine that will determine the parameters of its victory.

Unfortunately, Vladimir Putin’s history with nuclear weapons has been used since the beginning of the war. But in fact, his main weapon is neither nuclear nor conventional, but fear. Putin trades on the fear of freezing Europe, nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, various structures are involved in this.

If Vladimir Putin sincerely believes that launching nuclear weapons would lead to his immediate victory and the defeat of Ukraine, why hasn’t he done so yet? This is logical. Then lose popularity, economy and rating if you can just wave a magic wand?

They always answer me: “Because he has so many risks. Because Zahid said he would respond immediately”. So where will all these risks go to the model that you are drawing? The army will lose anyway. Yes, such a fear exists and it exists for obvious reasons. Nuclear weapons, regardless of the small risk of use, have such a scale of consequences that should still be taken into account. Vladimir Putin understands this very well, so we will hear this nuclear hysteria for a while. It will still throw up every now and then, but, well, that goes away very quickly. What is the global problem of bluffing? If you did not implement the threat, you will be trusted less and less in the future. Therefore, when Putin in the first week of the war brought the nuclear triad into combat readiness, everyone was worried, running, waiting for the third world war, buying iodine and doing whatever else. When Vladimir Putin mentioned nuclear weapons a few months later, everyone was also worried, but they did not buy iodine. But now he said that Russia can launch a preemptive strike, and individual alarmists are reacting to this. He promised to hit – hit. If a samurai has drawn a sword, then blood must be shed.

Russia has already shown that Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk Oblasts, Ryazan and everything nearby is not a big enough reason to use weapons. Will anyone say that Crimea is more important to Putin than Ryazan, which is not far from Moscow?

I do not know. Quite strange. Even if it were important, he understands very well that the use of nuclear weapons will only aggravate the situation. I hope that the West will come to this understanding more and more and will stop taking Putin’s intimidation into account in their calculations.

The representative of GUR Yagun unequivocally assesses that Putin is preparing the Russians for defeat. In your opinion, will they “swallow” the withdrawal of troops at least until February 24, 2022? Will Putin be able to come to an agreement and somehow “sell” it to his population? And hold on, and lose?

It’s a good question, but not an easy one to answer. It all depends on which Russians we are talking about. If we are talking about the ordinary population of Russia, then they do not have a great mechanism to express their dissatisfaction, there is no instrument of direct action, there are no elections. They can go to protests where they will be met with tanks and batons. But Putin tied himself to the defeat much more. Before the mobilization, the probability that Putin could leave Ukraine without losing power was much higher than it is now. After the people have been affected, after a lot of resources have been poured into this war, it’s a little more difficult. But it is more difficult not even from the point of view of the Russians, but from the point of view of the elites. Because if Vladimir Putin comes out of the war with a defeat, it will mean that all those expenses that fell on the shoulders of the elites were in vain. They cannot be compensated in any way, because the West will leave Russia in isolation to prevent the recurrence of this war. After all, it became obvious that if Putin concludes any peace agreements, he simply takes a break to gather strength and attack again.

Chances of a new offensive on Kyiv

What kind of agreements can be discussed and what is Putin counting on if Ukraine is not going to sit down with him at the negotiating table? Withdrawal of troops to the state of February 24, 2022 is impossible. Ukrainians will not forgive their government for this. They say they have trained 200,000 conscripts. What can this hike end up with? Is it a delay tactic again?

Vladimir Putin may well think that he can get away with marching to Kyiv. There are some plans in this direction, but it is not very clear how they can be implemented. In February, Putin tried to attack Ukraine and take Kyiv with a group of 180,000-200,000. How did it end? We saw. What is he cooking next? Recruit 200,000 people again and try to capture Kyiv. In Ukraine, there are significantly more weapons, a much larger range of weapons, more funds for air defense and anti-aircraft missiles, Ukraine has a million trained people under the gun.

The situation is very different from the one in February. In this context, how can you expect to try to do something new with the same number of troops? I don’t really understand. Or is there some secret weapon that I don’t know about. Or some incredible data from Russian intelligence, which says that the Ukrainian army consists of two people, and they are both drunk. It is not clear what exactly they are targeting when planning another offensive in the spring. Moreover, if in the spring they are going to advance as freshly mobilized, then who will guard the front? Now these mobilized are dispersed along the front line and die there in packs. Who will replace them? If they are not there, Ukraine will quickly take Melitopol and go to Crimea. It is necessary to somehow replenish the troops. It will come either to let the emergency workers go to waste, or to announce another mobilization. And these are quite negative actions that affect both the military themselves and their environment. I willingly believe that Vladimir Putin has some kind of offensive plan, but the implementation will be a disaster. He will, of course, take most people with him to his future grave. But how can it burn out? No one understands this. I hope he doesn’t manage to live or sit until spring.

You made many predictions about the future of Putin. In light of recent events, could you reconsider them?

I hope he dies or is captured tomorrow. I don’t have much faith in the fallback plan. The world is transparent and big. A person of such a level as Vladimir Putin cannot hide in it. He quite strongly tied his political fate to victory or defeat. So far, I don’t watch his victories there at all.

If we talk about forecasts, I can definitely say that discontent in Russia is growing. The Kremlin knows this for sure and sees it for sure. Discontent among the elites is also growing. Someone left, someone renounced Russian citizenship, someone is negotiating with the Americans and something else. We see a conflict within the security forces, where the army is against the security forces, everyone blames each other and suspects each other of everything. There is a loss of monopolies on legitimate violence. There are Kadirovites and Wagnerites who do what they want and no one opposes them. There are cases of desertion, crossbows, executions, there are a large number of prisoners with weapons. There is no longer a global Russian state. In political science, it is called “failed state”, when you do not have a normal economic base, there are no clear boundaries. A failed state cannot fight for long.

The main result of this year is that Ukraine persevered, persevered, gave a strong fight back. Ukraine showed both enemies and allies that it is an integral state that fights and can do it. Let us hope that Ukraine will end this war next year.

Diana Sharody, Oleksiy Lihman